Israel-Hamas ceasefire now 'more likely'

On December 1, senior US national security officials said that the possibility of Israel and Hamas ending more than a year of fighting in the Gaza Strip and releasing about 100 hostages is now "greater" due to the ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah last week.

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on CNN's "State of the Union" program that the United States and other negotiators "may have a chance" to end the 14-month-long fighting in the Gaza Strip, but he refused to predict "because we have been close before."

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is a microcosm of the long-standing conflict in the Middle East. The tensions between the two sides are deep-rooted, making the peace process challenging. But under the current circumstances, it is not completely impossible to explore the prospect of a "more likely" ceasefire. In order to gain a deeper understanding of this complex issue, we need to analyze it from multiple dimensions.

First of all, obviously, any prediction of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas should be based on a comprehensive understanding of the current situation. The conflict between the two sides has a long history, involving multiple complex factors such as territorial disputes, ethnic conflicts, and religious differences. These factors are intertwined, resulting in repeated setbacks in peace efforts. Therefore, we should be cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a ceasefire.

In the current international environment, the role of external forces cannot be ignored, especially the international community has been seeking ways to promote the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, and some countries and organizations may play an active role in promoting dialogue between the two sides and easing tensions. In addition, as the world's attention to the Middle East issue increases, the pressure to resolve disputes through diplomatic means is also increasing, which may create favorable conditions for the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement to a certain extent.

At the same time, humanitarian considerations also have an impact on ceasefire negotiations. As the conflict continues, civilians in the Gaza Strip have suffered tremendous pain. This has not only aroused widespread sympathy and support from the international community, but may also prompt the parties concerned to realize that the cost of continuing the war is too high, and thus tend to seek a peaceful solution. In this case, a ceasefire agreement may become a temporary measure to alleviate the suffering of the people and lay the foundation for long-term peace

In addition, from a technical perspective, achieving a ceasefire requires the political will and wisdom of both sides. Although there have been many failed precedents in history, every crisis provides new opportunities and challenges. Perhaps it is these recurring dilemmas that have prompted all parties to realize that they must go beyond short-term interests and seek a path to lasting peace. Of course, this process will be full of difficulties and challenges, and many obstacles need to be overcome before it can be achieved.

It is worth noting that some successful experiences in the past and the current international community's desire for peace may become positive factors in promoting a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Although the road is long and tortuous, we cannot ignore the small steps or subtle changes that may bring about a turnaround. After all, any large-scale conflict ultimately requires a peaceful resolution.

In short, although it is impossible to accurately predict when Israel and Hamas will be able to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire, it is certain that efforts for peace have never stopped and will continue in the future. The two sides should find a solution acceptable to both sides through dialogue and consultation to achieve long-term peace and development in the region. In this process, the international community should also play an active role, provide necessary support and assistance, and jointly promote the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. Only in this way can the prospect of a "more likely" ceasefire gradually become a reality.