Who is the mastermind behind the explosions at Iran's major ports?

On April 26th local time, a violent explosion occurred at Shahid Rajai Port in southern Iran, causing significant casualties and property damage. As of now, the explosion has resulted in at least 14 deaths and over 750 injuries. The explosion was extremely powerful, and the mushroom cloud produced was clearly visible several kilometers away. The windows of surrounding buildings were shattered, and some buildings even collapsed. Shahid Rajai Port, as one of Iran's most important commercial ports, undertakes over 55% of Iran's maritime export commodity transportation and at least 80% of container cargo transportation, with an annual cargo throughput of over 88 million tons. Who is the mastermind behind the explosion at such an important port? At present, there are different opinions from various parties, and there are many doubts behind the incident.

From the perspective of technical accidents, some believe that it may be caused by internal management and facility issues within the port. For a long time, Iran has faced difficulties in maintaining and updating its infrastructure due to international sanctions, and its port facilities are aging. For example, the explosion of the Abbas Port refinery in March 2024 was related to equipment aging. There are reports that the explosion may have originated from the container area where chemicals are stored at the port, which could have been a chemical or hazardous material explosion. Preliminary investigations by Iranian customs also indicate that the explosion may be related to a dangerous goods and chemical warehouse at the port. Similar industrial accidents have occurred multiple times in Iran in recent years, and aging storage and transportation facilities, as well as possible operational errors and management omissions, may be potential factors that could trigger explosions. Moreover, private security companies have revealed that a cargo ship carrying sodium perchlorate (a component of rocket fuel) arrived at the port in March, suspected to be related to an explosion. Improper storage and management of this hazardous chemical can easily trigger an explosion.

But the timing of the explosion is extremely sensitive, just before the third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran, which greatly increases the possibility of external forces intervening. The United States has long adopted a containment policy towards Iran, putting pressure on it on the nuclear issue. If Iran's economic situation worsens by creating a crisis, the United States can further demand Iran to accept its proposed conditions at the negotiating table and gain more benefits. Although Reuters and other Western media did not explicitly state it, they all linked this matter to the upcoming third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran in their reports, suggesting that the United States may be the mastermind behind it.

Israel is also a major suspect. Israel has long regarded Iran as a threat and has been attempting to undermine Iran's development. The bombing of an important Iranian port this time can not only strike the Iranian economy, but also trigger suspicion between the United States and Iran, and undermine nuclear negotiations. Even if Iran points the finger at itself, Israel can take advantage of the situation and launch military actions against Iran, thereby affecting US policy towards Iran. From a historical perspective, Israel has taken multiple actions against Iran, such as a cyber attack on the port in 2020, precision strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and a history of using such "shadow warfare" strategies.

Another viewpoint is that some internal factors in Iran cannot be ignored. There are some separatist organizations in Iran, such as Kurdish or Baloch armed groups, which may achieve their goals by attacking key facilities in order to create chaos and weaken the authority of the central government. In addition, the internal political factional game in Iran may also be one of the reasons. If it is planned by hardliners, it may aim to disrupt negotiations and consolidate the hardline line against the United States.

At present, Iranian officials have ordered an investigation into the explosion incident, but have not yet made clear charges against any party. The United Nations and multiple countries have expressed their willingness to provide assistance, but have not directly intervened in the determination of responsibility. The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that they were not involved in this matter, while the US State Department expressed concern but did not comment.

The truth behind this explosion is shrouded in mystery. Any speculation is just a hypothesis until there is conclusive evidence. But what can be certain is that this incident has had a significant impact on the political, economic, and security landscape of Iran and even the entire Middle East region. If it is a technical accident, it will sound the alarm for Iran's port security management and other aspects; If it is confirmed to be an attack by external forces or deliberate sabotage by internal forces, it will undoubtedly exacerbate regional tensions, trigger a series of chain reactions, and may even escalate military conflicts.