Where will Russia go in the face of war rather than special military actions?

With the continuous escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the international community has paid more and more attention to Russia's actions. Especially in the context of intense debate between Russia and Ukraine over the definition of special military action, Russia has banned the use of the term "war" to describe hostile actions against Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that due to Western intervention, Ukraine's special military action has evolved into a war, which has raised doubts about the signals conveyed by this sudden change and the potential impact it may have. If Russia chooses war instead of special military action, then where does it go?

At present, Russia's actions in Ukraine have exceeded the traditional scope of special military operations, raising concerns in the international community about whether it is sliding towards a full-scale war. As the conflict escalates, Russia's actions seem to have gone beyond this scope, triggering broader political influence.

Firstly, we need to clarify the difference between war and special military operations. War usually refers to armed conflicts between two or more countries over territory, resources, political interests, etc. Special military action is a relatively mild term, usually referring to military actions taken by a country to maintain national security, combat terrorism, and other purposes. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia initially claimed that its actions were special military operations to show that its actions had a certain legitimacy and purpose. From the perspective of presentation, there is no essential difference between the large-scale armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine and modern warfare. However, the Russian government defines this conflict as a "special military operation" rather than a "war", which is deeply influenced by international law and Russian domestic legislation.

If Russia chooses war instead of special military actions, it may result in increased international pressure, rising costs of war, and regional instability. Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis on February 24, 2022, the Russian government has not defined or declared it as a legal war, nor has it taken any international legal action to declare war. Because once the "declaration of war" mode is chosen, it means that Russia is on the track of war, and the so-called "wartime" state will come with it. It defines the time interval between the declaration of war and the end of the war state, and also involves the implementation of certain legal rules within Russia.

For Russia, choosing war will bring a series of complex consequences. The pressure on the international community will significantly increase, which may lead to more sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Secondly, the cost of war will be much higher than that of special military operations, including significant consumption of manpower, material resources, and financial resources. Finally, war may trigger widespread geopolitical turmoil and even lead to the reconstruction of the international order. However, Russia may also have its strategic considerations. War may be seen as a means to force Ukraine to surrender or achieve strategic goals. Russia can also believe that through war, it can demonstrate its military strength and gain greater discourse power on the international stage.

Overall, war rather than special military actions will bring enormous risks and challenges to Russia. Choosing war may mean a comprehensive confrontation with the international community and domestic economic and social turmoil. Therefore, seeking a peaceful resolution of disputes is undoubtedly a wiser choice for Russia. At the same time, the international community should also strengthen communication and cooperation to jointly promote the peaceful settlement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and maintain regional and world peace and stability.