U.S. stock futures open lower: Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.2% in a of analysis

Recently, the three major U.S. stock index futures have collectively opened lower before the market, with the Nasdaq 100 Index futures (Ndaq futures) down 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Index futures and S&P 500 Index futures weakening synchronously. This opening performance continues the market's volatility characteristics, and behind it is a complex interplay of multiple games, such as the Federal Reserve's policy path, geopolitical risks, and valuation pressures on stocks.

The market's sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has significantly increased. Although the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter of 224, the balance sheet reduction process is still ongoing, and market concerns about the "high interest rate maintenance period" have not subsided. According to the latest economic data, US March core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year-on-year, still higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target, the month-on-month growth rate has declined for three consecutive months. This data shows that inflationary pressures are gradually easing, but the Federal Reserve still needs to weigh the resilience the labor market – 236,000 new non-farm jobs were added in March, and the unemployment rate remained at a low of 3.8% The high interest rate environment directly pressures the tech-dominated Nasdaq, and tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia rely on debt repurchases to support their stock prices, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction directly leads to a tightening of market liquidity. If the Federal Reserve launches interest rate cuts in the third quarter of 2025, valuation repair space for tech stocks will open up; but if the current interest rate level is maintained until the end of the year, the Nasdaq may face 10%-1% adjustment pressure.

Recently, the U.S. has once again upgraded its tech restrictions on China, becoming an important catalyst for the weakness of the Nasdaq futures. April 25, it was reported that the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to expand its export control of semiconductor equipment to China, involving key areas such as advanced processolithography machines and EDA software. If this policy is implemented, it will directly impact the Asian businesses of chip industry leaders such as Nvidia and Applied Materials. Taking Nvidia an example, its 2024 Q4 financial report shows that China contributed about 20% of its revenue, and if the export control is upgraded, the delivery its H200 series AI chips may be delayed. At the same time, the repeated situation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the Middle East has increased the of the global supply chain. The prices of rare metals such as palladium and gallium have recently increased by 15%-20%, pushing up the production costs semiconductor and new energy companies. For tech companies that rely on the global supply chain, such as Tesla and TSMC, geopolitical risks may become a "black swan" the earnings season.

The weakness in the tech sector is also related to the divergence of expectations for the tech giants' earnings season. Despite continuous investment in AI by companies such as Microsoft and Meta, there has been growing skepticism about their short-term profitability. Morgan Stanley noted that revenue growth for US tech stocks could slow 8% in Q1 2025, below the market's previous expectation of 11%. The main drags are the slowdown in cloud computing business, seasonal fluctuations in the advertising market, and soft demand for consumer electronics. On the valuation front, the NDX 100 index still has a trailing price-to-ings ratio (TTM) of 32 times, much higher than the S&P 500's 25 times. If tech stocks' earnings growth to match the valuation level, capital may flow into low-valuation sectors such as energy and finance. In fact, since April, the S&P 500 Energy Index risen by 5.2%, while the tech index has fallen by 1.8%, indicating a trend of capital "rotation from high to low."

From technical perspective, the Nasdaq futures face strong resistance at around 18,500 points, which is the highest level since November 2024. If it to break through effectively, it could trigger technical selling. Moreover, the VIX panic index has recently rebounded from 14.5 to 17.8, indicating a rise in market risk aversion. In terms of capital flows, hedge funds sold a net $3.2 billion of US tech stocks in the third week of April, marking the second week of net reductions. However, at the same time, retail investors continued to increase their positions in the tech sector through ETFs, with the SPDR Technology Select ETF (K) seeing an average daily net inflow of $500 million. This phenomenon of "institutional exit and retail takeover" may exacerbate short-term volatility.

In short term, the trading range of the Nasdaq futures may continue to be maintained between 18,200 and 18,600 points. If the Federal sends dovish signals at the May interest rate meeting, or if tech stocks' earnings exceed expectations, the market may rebound; conversely, if geopolitical conflicts escal or economic data weakens, the Nasdaq could test the 18,000-point support level. In the long term, the valuation recovery of tech stocks still relies three key factors: 1) the start of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle; 2) substantive progress in the commercialization of AI; and 3) improvement the stability of the global supply chain. Investors can focus on structural opportunities in sub-sectors such as semiconductor equipment and cloud computing, while also hedging volatility risk through options.

The low open of the three major US stock index futures is essentially the market's pricing of multiple uncertainties. With the intertwining of the "last mile" of the's policy, the "landmines" of geopolitics, and the "scissors gap" of tech stocks' earnings, the 0.2% decline in Nasdaq futures may just be the prelude to greater volatility. The market is waiting for the "resonance point" of policy and data, and this process may be full repetitions and games.