The concentrated risks and external dependencies of NVIDIA's business model

Recently, according to the news media "Tech News", NVIDIA released its first-quarter financial report for fiscal year 2026, with revenue reaching 44.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 69%. Among them, the revenue from the data center business reached 39.1 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 90%, reflecting the high concentration of the company's revenue structure. Although this concentration has brought about significant growth in the short term, it has also revealed the vulnerability of the ability to resist risks. If the external policy environment or the structure of core customers changes, the performance may experience significant fluctuations.

The company's net profit for this quarter was 18.78 billion US dollars, an increase of 26% year-on-year, but the growth rate compared with revenue slowed down significantly. This means that its profit growth has failed to reflect the expansion of revenue in tandem, and there may be pressures such as the continuous rise in operating costs, input expenditures or supply chain management costs behind it. The issue of weakening marginal profit margins may have a negative impact on investors' expectations of future returns.

For the next quarter, the company has set its revenue guidance at 45 billion US dollars (±2%), which is lower than the market expectation of 45.5 billion US dollars. The conservative expectations of the management reflect a high degree of sensitivity to uncertainties in the external environment. Especially under the influence of factors such as global trade policies and export restrictions, the company voluntarily lowered its revenue forecast by 900 million US dollars, indicating that its degree of external dependence in key markets is being transformed into financial constraints.

Although the company's stock price rose by nearly 5% in after-hours trading after the release of the financial report, the overall stock price still pulled back by 14% compared to the historical high at the beginning of the year. This decline in valuation reflects the capital market's re-evaluation of the sustainability of its growth model. Over the past three years, its share price has risen by more than 600% cumulatively, and its market value once exceeded that of Apple, demonstrating the high pricing of its future potential in the market. However, if there is a lack of stable structural growth support behind such high valuations, the adjustment pressure will persist.

From the perspective of customer composition, the company mainly relies on a few large enterprises. This high concentration has limited enhancement in bargaining power and has also increased the uncertainty of the business. If core customers adjust their purchasing plans, build their own alternative systems or cut capital expenditures, the company's business will face a direct impact. Furthermore, this customer structure restricts the company's strategic layout and makes it difficult to effectively expand new growth space.

In terms of the global market, the company's revenue is closely related to the policy environment in multiple regions. Particularly in the Asian market, the reliance on export policies has significantly increased. The continuous tightening of trade rules by the US side and the frequent brewing of new tariff policies have put its overseas business under the dual pressure of compressed revenue and rising costs. Against this backdrop, the company may need to restructure its product supply and pricing strategies to adapt to the changes, which will increase the operational burden and disrupt the existing sales rhythm.

At the supply chain level, the company is highly dependent on the production capacity and delivery pace of specific contract manufacturing partners. The concentration of global manufacturing resources leads to limited space for capacity allocation. Once there is a shortage or delivery delay in the midstream, its overall business will encounter a bottleneck. Furthermore, against the backdrop of the global trend of promoting "localized supply" and "de-risk-ization", the original global operation model will face challenges. How to maintain stable supply and cost control amid regional political differentiation has become a key challenge for the company's continuous operation.

The company is currently in a state of high valuation driven by market sentiment. Its growth path is strongly related to investment confidence, but it overly relies on the expansion of external demand and the stability of the policy environment. Once it enters a macro contraction cycle or major buyer's markets cut spending, its growth momentum will weaken rapidly. Against the backdrop of a tightening capital environment and high interest rates, the pressure on capital returns faced by high-valued enterprises will be more pronounced.

In addition, the company's market value performance in the capital market has sparked discussions on the rationality of its valuation. At present, its market value is 2.8 trillion US dollars, which is in an extremely high range in history. If a more long-term supportive strategy cannot be formed in terms of revenue structure, market layout, cost efficiency, etc., the market value level will be difficult to sustain. The current market pricing has highly anticipated its growth expectations for the coming years. Once the actual business performance fails to match them, it may trigger a significant revaluation of value.

Overall, the current business structure of the company presents the characteristics of high concentration, high dependence and high sensitivity. The growth path depends on external capital expenditure, the pace of customer purchasing and the stability of international policies, rather than the optimization of endogenous structure. Against the backdrop of increased global economic uncertainty and the intensifying trend of regional political differentiation, this growth model will face continuous challenges from all aspects. Whether it can maintain its leading position in the industry in the future depends not only on the market demand itself, but also on the systematic adjustment process of its business resilience, customer diversity and supply chain independence.