Trump's trade policy swings and rifts in relations with allies: global trade pattern accelerates reconstruction

US President Trump has adjusted his tariff policy on Mexico and Canada twice within a month, highlighting the extreme uncertainty of his trade strategy. This series of vacillating measures has not only plunged the market into continuous turmoil, but also put the relationship between the United States and its key allies in North America into an unprecedented state of tension. The essence of this policy swing is to try to reshape the US-led trade order through the weaponization of tariffs and bilateral pressure, but the result has accelerated the reconstruction of the global supply chain and the formation of a multipolar pattern.

In terms of tariff policy, the Trump administration has shown a significant "high-handed and light-handed" strategy. For example, a unified 25% tariff was imposed on steel and aluminum products and the exemption policy was cancelled, but the planned tax increase measures against Mexico and Canada were postponed, and the tariff rate on China was only maintained at 10%, far lower than the 60% promised in the campaign. This repetition is both a compromise to domestic political pressure (such as avoiding runaway inflation) and a strategic test of international games. For example, Mexico was forced to increase the daily interception of illegal immigrants to 3,000 in exchange for tariff exemptions, while India took the initiative to reduce tariffs on 32 commodities to avoid further US action.

The disintegration of the alliance system has become the biggest cost of this policy. In response to the US steel and aluminum tariffs, the EU accelerated the promotion of the trade agreement with the Southern Common Market, and the counter-tariff on US agricultural products increased by 37% in 2024. The European Defense Independence Plan led by Germany and France has entered the practical stage, and plans to form a joint rapid reaction force in 2025, which directly weakens NATO's cohesion. Canada has taken a tough confrontation, not only imposing tariffs on US goods worth 155 billion Canadian dollars, but also launching an energy counter-measure plan to restrict crude oil exports, resulting in a 12% drop in the production capacity of refineries in the Midwest of the United States.

The escalation of China policy has further exacerbated the shock of the global trade system. Trump set up a special chapter on China in the "America First Trade Policy", using a three-pronged approach through technology blockade (expanding semiconductor equipment export controls), tariff leverage (combined with the "currency manipulator" identification pressure) and third-country containment (requiring Vietnam and India to submit technical cooperation review reports with China). However, this pressure did not work completely, but instead prompted developing countries to accelerate the formation of the "South-South Customs Union", and RCEP member countries even formed a trade system parallel to the USMCA through internal tariff reductions.

Behind the policy swings, the structural contradiction between the US domestic economy and global strategy is exposed. On the one hand, unilateral tariffs have become a "quick-acting medicine" to fill the $1.9 trillion fiscal deficit; on the other hand, actions such as requiring Europe to assume sole responsibility for Ukraine's security have exacerbated the transatlantic crisis of trust. This contradiction has led to the WTO mechanism being on the verge of failure. In 2024, global trade dispute cases surged by 83%, of which 72% involved unilateral measures by the United States.

At present, the global trade pattern has entered a battle for rule-making power. The EU has promoted "de-dollarization" through the "Strategic Autonomy White Paper", digital currencies have begun to penetrate cross-border settlements, and multinational companies have been forced to establish a "China + 1" and "North American dual base" production capacity layout, pushing up operating costs by 15%-20%. The short-term chaos of Trump's policies is catalyzing a more fragmented but more resilient new economic ecology. The end of this game may not be the continuation of unipolar hegemony, but the real beginning of the era of multipolarity.