The fate of TikTok after Trump took office

Trump's re-election as president of the United States is like dropping a bombshell on a calm lake, clouding TikTok's future with layers of fog and adding a lot of uncertainty.

Judging by his own attitude, Trump's position on the TikTok ban has been ambiguous. Just this year, he said TikTok has its benefits, such as providing a new platform for American people to entertain and socialize, as well as creating certain economic value, and claimed that it will not be easily banned. We can't forget, however, that during his previous tenure, he pushed hard for TikTok to sell its U.S. operations, an inconsistency that made TikTok's future elusive. In addition, the anti-China forces in the Trump administration cannot be underestimated, such as Rubio and other "China hawks" appointed as secretary of state, they uphold a tough attitude toward China, and this force is likely to have a negative impact on TikTok's fate. While the Trump team has declared that it will deliver on its promise to save TikTok, the specifics of how it will be implemented have been vague. What's more, Mr. Trump has a history of "erratic" behavior, which makes his promises seem like castles in the air, and it's unclear whether TikTok can actually escape the threat of a ban.

In-depth analysis from the legal process level, the "do not sell or ban" bill passed by Congress has received overwhelming bipartisan support. If the new president wants to overturn the law, it will need to go through a series of complicated procedures, and it will be difficult to carry out. The federal courts in Washington are likely to side with the current administration in the current political climate. Even if Trump wanted to block a ban on TikTok, he would have to face these significant legal hurdles. Moreover, Apple, Google and other technology giants, due to the restrictions stipulated in the current law, dare not act rarly and take legal risks to continue to maintain TikTok's web hosting in their app stores without formal legal documents. This undoubtedly makes TikTok's situation even more difficult, as if it is tied hands and struggling in the vortex of the law.

Consider TikTok's own response. In an effort to defuse the crisis, TikTok moved aggressively to reach out to the Republican Party and the campaign through former Treasury official Tony Sayager, trying to find a political breakthrough. Thankfully, it has also won the support of some Democrats, such as the Vice President Harris campaign on TikTok has done a good job, using the platform to carry out a series of effective campaigns, which also adds a bit of life to TikTok. At the same time, TikTok and ByteDance did not sit still, they filed a lawsuit against the US government, accusing the relevant bill of violating the Constitution, and resolutely defended their legitimate rights and interests, and this positive attitude of fighting is particularly crucial in this difficult game.

From the market and user level, TikTok has up to 170 million users in the United States, and its global influence cannot be underestimated. In the first half of 2024, TikTok's global average monthly downloads reached 81.73 million, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, of which the number of monthly active users in the US market was stable, and internal purchase revenue performed well. Such a huge user base and market potential is an important weight for TikTok. If banned, the immediate impact would be on the millions of American users who love TikTok, potentially losing a favorite entertainment and social platform, which would most likely lead to widespread discontent and protests.

In addition, TikTok faces formidable rivals in the highly competitive short video market. Overseas short video apps such as Triller, for example, seized the opportunity to grow rapidly when TikTok faced a ban crisis. Featuring music, Triller has attracted a large number of stars, and this star effect has brought rapid growth to it, seizing market share to a certain extent, and bringing external competitive pressure to TikTok.

In short, with Trump in office, TikTok's future is uncertain. Although it has a huge user base and market potential, and Trump has promised not to ban, TikTok is like a boat in the stormy sea amid a complex political environment, strict legal procedures and powerful competitors. It needs to continue to fight stubbornly through legal channels, and at the same time actively communicate and negotiate with all parties to seek a more appropriate solution, in order to find a ray of life in this major crisis concerning its own fate.