Trump wins the first primary within the party, but Europe is struggling to "prevent Trump"?

The European Commission member in charge of the internal market, Thierry Breton, made a speech about Trump at an event of the European Parliament. Breton said that Trump said to the President of the European Commission, Ursula Vondrein, in 2020, "If Europe is attacked, we will never help or support you". Breton's reminder of Trump's views and the fact that he may soon return to the White House has indeed caused real concern and pain in Brussels.

According to reports, on the 15th local time, Iowa in the United States held its primary for the 2024 presidential election, officially marking the beginning of the quadrennial general election. On the evening of January 15th local time, former US President Trump won the Iowa Republican primary.

The first step back, Trump takes Iowa

At around 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, just 31 minutes after the Iowa caucus began, with only 1% of the vote counted, the Associated Press announced Trump's victory, claiming that Trump received over 70% of the vote.

As of 10:30 pm Eastern Time on Monday, with 79% of the voting data included, Trump's vote share was 51%, far ahead of his two main competitors - Ron de Santis and Nikki Haley, with the latter two having a vote share of 21.2% and 19.1%, respectively.

Eight years ago in the 2016 general election, Trump lost in the Iowa primary. But in this election, Trump easily won the state's victory, bringing a good omen for Trump's path to the 2024 election.

Iowa is an agricultural state with a population of 3.2 million and holds six electoral votes. There are nearly 670000 registered Democrats in the state. As the first stop of this year's Republican primary, the state's election situation will serve as a barometer for the overall election situation.

Trump's "comeback" raises concerns in Europe

On the 11th local time, Christina Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, bluntly stated in an interview with French television station 2 that if Trump were to take office again, it would "clearly pose a threat" to Europe. The Financial Times pointed out that this breaks the tradition of central bank governors not commenting on politics and reflects European leaders' concerns about Trump's potential victory.

Lagarde said that if Trump returns to the White House next year, the United States is likely to have conflicts with Europe in multiple areas, including trade protectionism, military support for NATO, and addressing climate change. She said, "Looking back, from the first four years of Trump's tenure, Trump's victory was clearly a threat.". However, she believes that Congress will ensure that the United States continues to support Ukraine and there will be no situation where Europe unilaterally supports Ukraine.

The Trump team has not yet responded to Lagarde's latest comments, but Trump himself has long expressed disdain for European dissatisfaction.

He has repeatedly stated that many European countries are "pitying us", including relying on military protection provided by the United States and adopting policies that are unfavorable to American businesses. Therefore, he believes that Europeans' dissatisfaction with him is simply because "I have implemented the US priority policy.". Europe is highly dissatisfied with the multiple tariffs imposed during Trump's presidency, which has sparked a trade war between the two sides. Biden has reduced some tariffs and announced on December 28, 2023, a two-year extension of the suspension of tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

According to a report by The Washington Daily on December 27th, Trump has repeatedly announced that if he takes office again, he will "fight tooth for tooth, with tariffs for tariffs", and has hinted at confronting European countries on tax issues related to software, online subscriptions, and other digital services. Trump's proposal of a universal 10% tariff has also attracted attention from multiple parties.

Trump has been a headache for Europe

European countries have not provided sufficient funding for their armies for decades because they assume that war is unlikely to occur, and if the worst happens, the United States will come to help. No matter how naive it may sound, Trump still shattered this assumption.

A senior EU diplomat said, "After Trump took office, we realized the fact that the United States may not always act out of European interests, especially if it goes against American interests." During Trump's presidency, this new reality prompted Europe to reflect on itself. Officials assert that Europe needs to be prepared not to rely on the United States as it has always been. Europe is not doing enough to prevent Trump. The unsettling fact is that rearming 27 countries and changing their trade methods will take a long time. Therefore, even under normal circumstances, the deep-rooted relationship with the United States - as well as the ultimate dependence on the United States - is not easily removed.

Preventing Trump is difficult because he himself poses a rather unique threat to Europe. Because the United States is not a hostile country. It is an old ally. As is well known, European officials hope that Trump will not return to the White House. European Central Bank President Christina Lagarde said that Trump's return will pose a "threat" to Europe. The harmful legacy left by his first presidential term may be that cross-Atlantic relations can never return to the past.