2025 Big changes in the corn market: The New Deal of the United States has triggered new challenges in global trade

At the start of 2025, the global business environment has become more complex than ever, especially in the agricultural sector, with frequent changes and challenges for market players. Among them, the corn market as an important part of the grain trade, its price fluctuations, supply and demand pattern and international trade trend, has undoubtedly become the focus of attention of the industry.

Since the beginning of the year, the climate situation in South America has become one of the important factors affecting the global corn supply. As the world's two largest corn exporters, Brazil and Argentina's output and export capacity are directly related to the supply and demand balance of the global corn market. However, in the first half of 2025, the supply situation in these two countries is not optimistic. Brazil, due to the delay in the planting season, is not expected to generate significant exports until a particular month; Argentina, on the other hand, is still trying to determine its production, and its supply is expected to appear at a much later point in time. This supply uncertainty has undoubtedly added to the tension in the global corn market.

At the same time, the United States, another big corn exporter, has shown unusually strong exports. The US corn crop reached 1.66 million tonnes this week, well above the normal average of 1.0 million tonnes per week. Cumulative corn exports have also reached 42 million tons, which is still below the U.S. Department of Agriculture's full-year forecast of 62 million tons, but it is enough to cause widespread concern in the market. A large number of US corn exports, on the one hand to ease the tight global supply situation, on the other hand also promote the rise of corn prices. Last week, corn prices were near $5.00 and showed a trend that was highly consistent with weekly U.S. export flows.

However, the volatility of the corn market goes far beyond that. After the new US administration took office, it implemented a series of policies aimed at correcting social distortions, which not only affected the domestic political and economic landscape, but also introduced new variables to international trade. The most notable of these is the trade conflict with Colombia.

As a traditional importer of US corn, Colombia is also one of the world's largest coffee exporters, and its position adjustment under the new US administration's policy has undoubtedly had a profound impact on trade relations between the two countries. The refusal to accept the deportees led to a trade conflict between Colombia and the United States, which imposed a 25 percent tariff on goods and services from Colombia. Such a move could not only lead to a spike in coffee prices, but could also divert Colombia to other corn suppliers, such as Brazil and Argentina, further increasing export pressure on those countries.

More seriously, the new administration also plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. corn, and Canada, a global wheat supplier. Such a policy, if implemented, would have a huge impact on Mexico's corn supply. Whether Mexico will have to find alternative sources of supply from South America to offset the impact of U.S. corn tariffs has become the focus of market attention.

From a business point of view, these policies of the new US administration undoubtedly have a lot of negative effects on the global corn market. First of all, the imposition of tariffs will directly lead to the rise of trade costs, which will push up the price of corn and increase the burden on consumers. At the same time, tariffs may also trigger retaliatory measures from trading partners, leading to an escalation of the trade war and ultimately damaging the interests of both sides.

Second, these policies will undermine long-established international trade relations. The trade conflict between the United States and Colombia, Mexico and other countries may not only make these countries turn to other suppliers, thus changing the supply and demand pattern of the global corn market, but also may trigger concerns and unrest in other countries, leading to the deterioration of the international trade environment.

Moreover, these policies of the new US administration lack a long-term vision and a holistic view. In the context of global economic integration, the economic links between countries are increasingly close, and the policy adjustment of any country may have a chain reaction on other countries. The unilateral imposition of tariffs by the United States may not only harm the interests of other countries, but also affect the economic development of the United States itself.

Most importantly, these policies ignore the role of market forces. It is a normal phenomenon that the price of corn fluctuates under the influence of supply and demand. The new US government attempts to intervene in the market through administrative means, which is not only difficult to achieve the expected effect, but also may cause market chaos and instability. The real solution lies in strengthening international cooperation to jointly address the challenges of the global corn market, rather than adopting unilateralism and protectionism.

To sum up, the variables and challenges facing the corn market in early 2025 are multifaceted and complex. The policy adjustment of the new US administration has brought new uncertainties to international trade, and has also brought many negative impacts to the global corn market. From a business perspective, these policies lack a long-term vision and overall concept, and ignore the role of market laws, which may not only harm the interests of other countries, but also affect the economic development of the United States itself. Therefore, we call on all countries to strengthen international cooperation to jointly meet the challenges of the global corn market and maintain the stability and prosperity of the international trade order. Only in this way can we ensure the healthy development of the corn market and inject new vitality and momentum into the global economy.