Is the global economy entering a process of deglobalization?

In today's complex and changing world pattern, the discussion on whether the world economy is moving towards deglobalization is becoming more and more intense. Judging from the recent phenomena and data, there are indeed some signs that appear to be "deglobalization", but it is obviously too early to say that the world economy is firmly on the road to deglobalization.

On the one hand, a number of factors seem to be pushing the world economy in the direction of de-globalization. First, intensifying geopolitical conflicts have become a powerful force for deglobalization of the world economy. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict between Palestine and Israel and other regional disputes have not only brought incalculable casualties and property losses to the local areas, but also had a severe impact on the global industrial and supply chains. Take the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has strained the region's energy supplies. Russia is an important energy exporter, and its conflict with Ukraine has blocked energy transportation routes, forcing European countries to look for alternative energy sources, and energy prices have fluctuated sharply. At the same time, the food market has been seriously affected, as Ukraine is an important grain exporter, and the conflict has caused food exports to be blocked and food prices to rise. In this context, some companies have had to rethink the layout of their supply chains to reduce their dependence on conflict zones in order to reduce risk. This undoubtedly breaks the original global supply chain system to a certain extent, giving people a sense of deglobalization.

Second, the rise of trade protectionism, like a solid barrier, hinders the process of globalization. In order to protect domestic industries and employment, some countries have taken measures such as raising tariffs and setting up trade barriers. A series of protectionist trade policies in the United States in recent years have triggered trade frictions around the world. Us trade sanctions against China and other countries cover a wide range of sectors, from steel and aluminum products to high-tech products. Such unilateral trade behavior not only undermines the global trade order, but also allows other countries to follow suit, leading to the spread of trade protectionism around the world. For example, some countries impose high tariffs on imported cars to protect their own auto industries. Import restrictions were imposed on agricultural products to protect the interests of domestic farmers. These protectionist measures have worsened the international trade environment and reduced global trade volume, dealing a heavy blow to the development of economic globalization.

Moreover, the impact of the global pandemic is still ongoing, becoming another important factor in the trend of deglobalization. Although the epidemic has been brought under control to some extent, lockdown measures and travel restrictions adopted by countries during the epidemic have had a huge impact on international trade and investment. The borders of many countries are closed, the transportation of goods is blocked, the flow of people is stagnant, and the global industrial and supply chain is at risk of disruption. Some companies had to suspend production because they could not get raw materials and parts. Some multinational companies have had their operations severely affected and have had to readjust their global footprint. In addition, the pandemic has led some countries to re-examine the risks of globalization, recognizing that over-reliance on global supply chains can bring great uncertainty in times of crisis. As a result, some countries have begun to promote industrial reshoring, encouraging domestic companies to produce at home to reduce their dependence on external supply chains.

However, on the other hand, there are also many factors that indicate that globalization is still the mainstream trend of world economic development and cannot be easily reversed. First of all, the rapid development of the digital economy is like a powerful torrent, which promotes the close connection of the global economy. With the continuous progress of the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies, emerging fields such as cross-border e-commerce and digital service trade are booming. The flow of information and business cooperation on a global scale is more convenient and efficient, and businesses and consumers can easily transact and communicate across national borders. For example, through cross-border e-commerce platforms, consumers can buy goods from all over the world; Enterprises can use cloud computing, big data and other technologies to achieve the optimal allocation of resources on a global scale. The development of the digital economy has broken the time-space constraints of traditional trade and injected new vitality into globalization.

Second, international organizations and multilateral cooperation mechanisms are still playing an important role as solid pillars of globalization. Despite some challenges, international organizations such as the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank continue to actively promote global trade liberalization and financial stability. These international organizations have provided platforms and guarantees for global economic cooperation by making rules, coordinating disputes and providing assistance. At the same time, countries are also strengthening regional economic cooperation, such as the European Union, APEC, ASEAN and other regional organizations have a good momentum of development. By lowering trade barriers, promoting investment and strengthening cooperation, these regional organizations have promoted economic integration within the region and contributed to the development of the global economy.

Moreover, the close connection between the global industrial chain and supply chain is difficult to break apart, like a tough network, which closely links all countries in the world. After years of development, the global industrial chain and supply chain have formed a high degree of specialization and division of labor. Enterprises from all over the world look for the best production factors and market resources, and this cooperation model not only improves production efficiency, but also reduces costs. The production of a smartphone, for example, may involve companies in multiple countries, with each step, from chip design to assembly and manufacturing, carried out by the most advantageous company. This kind of global production mode makes it difficult for enterprises to give up the development opportunities of globalization easily. Even in the face of challenges such as geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism and the pandemic, companies will strive to find solutions and maintain the stability of global industrial and supply chains.

The world economy is currently in a complex and uncertain stage, with both deglobalization factors at work and globalization forces driving it. In the future, the development direction of the world economy will depend on the joint efforts of governments, enterprises and the international community. If we can effectively resolve geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism and other issues, and strengthen international cooperation, globalization is expected to continue to develop in depth. On the contrary, if these problems are not addressed, the trend of deglobalization may be further intensified. But in any case, the trend of globalization is unstoppable, because globalization serves the common interests of all countries in the world and is a powerful driving force for world economic development. We should adopt a more open, inclusive and cooperative attitude to actively respond to various challenges and jointly promote the prosperity and development of the world economy.