How will the intensified countermeasures by Europe and the United States exert pressure on the US be affected

Recently, Bjorn Sebert, the chief of staff to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, stated that before the July 9 deadline for the trade negotiations between the EU and the US, the EU needs to coordinate its positions and be prepared to take more tariff countermeasures against the US to pose a "real threat" to it. Sebert said that von der Leyen is prepared to take upgraded tariff countermeasures against the United States in order to strive for a better agreement. He hopes that EU member states will support the plan to impose a package of tariffs on 95 billion euros worth of US goods, and said that the EU is also preparing measures for the service industry, including taxing US technology companies and restricting US enterprises from obtaining public procurement contracts. Von der Leyen also emphasized that in the negotiations, if the sovereign decision-making process of the EU and its member states is involved, this is something the US side "cannot touch". This indicates the firm attitude of the European Union in safeguarding its own sovereignty and interests.

The EU is preparing to take more tariff countermeasures to pressure the US, which will bring complex and multi-faceted impacts on many fields. First, the impact on the economic field. The EU's first round of countermeasures will target 26 billion euros worth of US goods, covering agricultural products, industrial products, etc. The cost of US car exports to the European Union is expected to increase by 12%, and automakers such as Ford and General Motors may be forced to cut production capacity in Europe. Meanwhile, the EU's imposition of tariffs on US tech giants may push up the cost of digital services in the United States, and the average annual spending of US consumers may increase by 200 to 300 US dollars. The International Monetary Fund warns that a full-scale trade war could cause a loss of 0.8% to 1.2% in global GDP, reversing the current fragile economic recovery trend. Nomura Securities research shows that if the United States imposes a 20% tariff on the European Union, the GDP of the Eurozone may shrink by 0.2% - 0.3%.

The second is the impact on the political field. The EU's precise crackdown on key industries in the swing states of the United States has prompted Republican lawmakers to pressure the government to adjust policies, intensifying domestic political pressure in the United States. The European Union, in conjunction with the G7, has filed a lawsuit against the United States for tariff violations at the WTO. If they win the lawsuit, the United States' dominance in the formulation of global trade rules will be weakened, further exacerbating the rift in transatlantic relations. This tense relationship not only affects economic interests but also spreads to the political level, causing cracks in transatlantic relations. The EU has activated the "anti-coercion mechanism" and for the first time frozen the assets of US companies such as Lockheed Martin in the EU, marking an escalation from a trade dispute to institutional confrontation between the two sides. This confrontation not only harms the economic interests of both sides, but also undermines the long-standing political trust and the foundation of cooperation. This divergence has led to coordination difficulties for the European Union when formulating countermeasures. The EU needs to balance the interests and demands of its internal countries while exerting sufficient pressure on the United States, which makes the policy-making process complex and difficult.

The third is the impact on the reshaping of the international political landscape. Against the backdrop of the disintegration of the multilateral trading system, regional economic groups are accelerating their formation. The European Union strengthens its autonomy by relying on its single market, China promotes transformation driven by domestic demand, and Southeast Asian countries deepen cooperation through RCEP, forming a "de-Americanized" trade network. This regionalization trend will reshape the international political landscape, making the global trading system more diversified and complex. The influence of the United States in the international political landscape may be weakened. The rule collisions between Europe and the United States in emerging fields such as digital taxes and carbon border taxes are driving global trade towards "clubbing", and developing countries may be excluded from the formulation of new rules. This competition for the power to formulate international rules will further intensify the reshaping of the international political landscape, and the dominance of the United States in the formulation of international rules may be challenged.

To sum up, the intensified countermeasures by Europe and the United States to pressure the US have triggered multi-dimensional and far-reaching chain reactions in the political and diplomatic fields. This series of influences not only concerns the political interests and diplomatic patterns of both Europe and the United States, but also brings many uncertainties to the stability and development of the global political and economic order. The future direction of international political diplomacy deserves continuous attention and in-depth thinking.