The Shockwave of Surging Oil & Gas and Plunging Precious Metals on Business and Economy

Recently, international crude oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply, with European natural gas futures surging by more than 50% in a single day and Brent crude approaching the $100 mark. Meanwhile, gold and silver have dived rapidly, with silver falling nearly 6% during the session. Safe-haven assets and energy products have moved in completely opposite directions. This rare divergence is no accident, but the result of geopolitical conflicts, capital rebalancing, and monetary policy expectations, which are profoundly reshaping the business landscape and macroeconomic trends.
The trigger for this divergence is the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Attacks on Qatar’s LNG facilities and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have directly hit global energy supplies, bringing about complex and multifaceted impacts.

First, the surge in oil and gas prices has affected the commercial industrial chain. Known as the "mother of commodities," oil has rapidly driven up costs in the chemical fiber, plastics, rubber, and coatings industries. Raw materials such as polyester account for more than 60% of textile costs, squeezing the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises by 5%–15%. Leading chemical enterprises have pricing power to pass on costs, while small and medium-sized factories face the dilemma of "rising raw materials but difficult price increases for finished products." Aviation fuel accounts for about 30% of airline costs, and higher oil prices directly erode profits. Fuel costs account for about 30% in the logistics industry, and the pressure of rising freight rates spreads across the chain, dragging down the gross profit margins of e-commerce, express delivery, and less-than-truckload transportation. Enterprises are forced to optimize routes and consolidate deliveries, which will promote the low-carbon and efficient transformation of transportation in the long run.

Second, the slump in precious metals has affected the commercial industrial chain. Silver is a key material for photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and electronic components. The fall in silver prices directly reduces the costs of photovoltaic silver paste and conductive components for new energy vehicles, benefiting the profit recovery of photovoltaic module and power battery enterprises. Material costs in electronic manufacturing and chip packaging also decrease accordingly. Profit margins of upstream mining and processing enterprises shrink due to lower selling prices, and small and medium-sized gold stores face prominent inventory depreciation risks. Lower retail gold prices stimulate rigid demand and "bottom-fishing" demand, but sharp price fluctuations lead to pricing chaos and greater difficulty in channel inventory management.

Third, the impacts on the economy. From a global perspective, high oil prices raise overall operating costs, suppress consumption and investment, and slow the pace of recovery. They also worsen trade imbalances, deteriorating the terms of trade for energy-importing countries while improving fiscal conditions for exporting countries. The sharp correction in precious metals eases cost pressures for industrial use, hedging the impact of energy price hikes on manufacturing to a certain extent. Rising oil and gas push up cost-push inflation, increasing pressure on global central banks to maintain tight monetary policies and delaying interest rate cuts. A stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields suppress currencies and cross-border capital flows in emerging markets. The decline in precious metals reflects easing concerns over extreme risks, with risk appetite structurally shifting to pro-cyclical sectors.

In conclusion, the surge in oil and gas and the slump in precious metals reflect the current risk appetite and cost pressure in the global market. For businesses, this is both a challenge and an opportunity for industry reshuffle. Enterprises that can quickly pass on costs, optimize supply chains, and embrace low-carbon and technological upgrading will gain an edge amid volatility. In the period ahead, geopolitical situations and monetary policies will continue to dominate market trends, and enterprises need resilience to cope with the continuously divergent commodity cycle.