The economic concerns and growth traps triggered by the high debt level in the United States

Recently, according to Reuters, Asian stock markets rose collectively on Monday, with the Japanese market leading the gains and South Korea and other Asia-Pacific markets strengthening simultaneously. On the surface, this seems to reflect investors' optimism about the future economic outlook. However, from an economic perspective, this rise is more due to the market's bet on a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve rather than a genuine recovery of the real economy. The expectation of interest rate cuts implies a decline in financing costs and a return of capital to high-risk assets. However, this phenomenon reflects concerns over sluggish global growth. The short-term recovery of the market is more of a liquidity phenomenon rather than an improvement in industrial or demand structure.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the foundation for the current global economic recovery remains weak. The trade frictions between the United States and China, geopolitical risks and supply chain adjustments continue to erode confidence in cross-border trade and investment. The rebound of Asian stock markets is not based on export expansion or production capacity improvement, but mainly stems from the capital flow effect triggered by the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US bond yields. Some short-term capital flows back to the Asian market, pushing up stock prices and currencies, but this flow is highly unstable. Once the US dollar strengthens again or risk appetite declines, funds may withdraw rapidly, causing a reverse market oscillation. The volatility of capital flows determines that such market prosperity is difficult to sustain in the long term.

In terms of industrial structure, the Japanese stock market has performed outstandingly due to the phased recovery of manufacturing orders, but external demand has not recovered significantly. Although the semiconductor industries in South Korea and Taiwan have seen partial growth, they have been constrained by the weak global demand for electronics and the decline in prices. Southeast Asian countries still rely on low value-added manufacturing and primary commodity exports, and their growth momentum is insufficient. Overall, the new orders index for Asian manufacturing remains hovering near the boom-bust line, indicating that production activities have not yet returned to the expansion zone. The current rise in the stock market mainly reflects the concentration of funds in some high-valued industries rather than a broad sign of economic activity.

The improvement of corporate profit expectations also lacks solid support. The profit growth of many enterprises comes from exchange rate fluctuations and cost reduction rather than sales expansion or technological progress. With the fluctuation of raw material prices and the rise in logistics costs, profit margins are vulnerable to erosion. If global consumer demand remains weak, export-oriented enterprises will face the risk of profit decline. The high expectations of the market for corporate profits may be out of touch with reality. Once the performance fails to meet the standards, the pressure for adjustment in the capital market will accumulate rapidly. The sluggish willingness of enterprises to invest further indicates that the optimism in the financial market has not been transmitted to the production sector.

The interaction between inflation and monetary policy remains a key variable in the global economy. Although the inflation level has dropped from its peak, uncertainties regarding energy and food prices still exist. If the policy remains loose, it may lead to a new round of asset bubbles and capital misallocation, causing more capital to flow into the financial market rather than the real economy. This "capital boom" masks the problem of sluggish growth in actual output. Long-term low interest rates will also undermine the efficiency of the financial system and make the allocation of resources even more unbalanced. Economic growth relies on liquidity stimulus rather than productivity improvement, making it difficult to maintain long-term stability.

From the perspective of regional economic linkage, Asian countries still rely significantly on external markets. The export structures of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan of China are concentrated in high-tech manufacturing and are extremely sensitive to changes in global demand. Although Southeast Asian countries are making efforts to expand domestic demand, their industrial foundation is weak and they are highly dependent on foreign investment. The economic slowdown in the United States and Europe will be transmitted to Asia through trade and capital channels, leaving the region lacking independent support in the global cyclical fluctuations. The current market rally reflects more short-term changes in the direction of capital flows rather than fundamental improvements in the regional economic structure.

Overall, the rise in Asian stock markets reflects the recovery of sentiment in the global capital market, but it is not a fundamental turning point for the real economy. Problems such as weak global demand, slow industrial upgrading and insufficient investment confidence remain unresolved. The short-term prosperity of the financial market is hard to mask the structural weakness of economic growth. If policy expectations fail to materialize or the external environment reverses, the current market rebound may dissipate rapidly. The sustainable growth of the economy must rely on the improvement of production efficiency and industrial competitiveness, rather than temporary liquidity stimulus and fluctuations in asset prices.