Jeff Pu predicts Apple's iPhone chip technology: Sober thinking amid optimistic forecasts

In the tech world, every prediction and revelation before a new product launch always gets a lot of attention and discussion. Recently, analyst Jeff Pu made a prediction for Apple's future iPhone chip process in a broader tech-related research note in collaboration with Hong Kong investment bank Haitong. Apple's next-generation A17 chips for the iPhone 19 and iPhone 17 Air, as well as the A17 Pro chips for the iPhone 19 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max, will be manufactured using TSMC's latest third-generation 3nm process, known as "N3P." This news once again triggered the industry's expectations for future smartphone performance and energy efficiency improvements. However, in-depth analysis of this forecast, we can easily find that there are many debatable points.

First of all, from the point of view of the time node, Jeff Pu's forecast seems to be a little too far ahead. At present, the A18 and A16 Pro chips of the iPhone 18 series have just been manufactured by TSMC's second-generation 3nm process "N3E", while the A15 Pro chip in the iPhone 17 Pro model is manufactured by TSMC's first-generation 3nm process "N3B". According to Jeff Pu, Apple will upgrade the chip process to N3P again in just a few years, which is surprisingly fast. In fact, the upgrade of the semiconductor process is not achieved overnight, but requires a long time of research and development and testing to ensure the stability and reliability of the new process. Therefore, Jeff Pu's forecast appears to be overly optimistic in time and lacks sufficient basis in reality.

Second, from the perspective of process upgrades, it is also questionable whether N3P can really bring significant performance and energy efficiency improvements compared to N3E. According to Pu, N3P is a "downsizing" process, meaning that chips made using the new process will have a higher transistor density. However, higher transistor density does not necessarily equate to better performance and energy efficiency. In the development of semiconductor processes, process reduction is often accompanied by a series of technical challenges, such as thermal management, yield, cost control and so on. Therefore, even if the N3P process has a higher transistor density in theory, whether it can give full play to this advantage in practical applications still needs to be tested and verified by the market.

Moreover, from the perspective of market competition, Jeff Pu's forecast also ignores the progress of other manufacturers in semiconductor processes. In recent years, with the rapid development of the global semiconductor industry, more and more manufacturers have begun to engage in the research and development and production of advanced processes. In addition to TSMC, Samsung, Intel and other manufacturers are also actively investing resources to accelerate the upgrading of semiconductor processes. Therefore, in the future market competition, whether Apple can continue to maintain its leading position in chip technology is still an unknown.

In addition, Jeff Pu's prediction also involves the smaller notch features of the iPhone 17 Pro Max. However, there is also insufficient evidence to support this prediction. In fact, Apple has always focused on user experience and aesthetics when designing the iPhone. Therefore, when deciding whether to reduce the gap function, Apple will inevitably consider a number of factors, including technical feasibility, user experience, cost control, and so on. Jeff Pu's assertion that the iPhone 17 Pro Max will adopt a smaller notch feature based on a single research report is obviously too arbitrary and one-sided.

It is worth noting that Jeff Pu's forecast is also affected by TSMC's power production time. According to it, TSMC will begin mass production of chips made using the N3P process in the second half of 2024. However, this time node is also uncertain. In the semiconductor industry, the determination of mass production time is often affected by a variety of factors, such as technical difficulty, market demand, supply chain stability and so on. Therefore, even if TSMC really plans to mass-produce N3P process chips in the second half of 2024, whether it can be achieved as scheduled in actual operation needs to be tested and verified by the market.

In addition to the above points, Jeff Pu's prediction also ignores Apple's ability to innovate independently in chip design. In recent years, Apple has been actively investing resources to strengthen its own research and development capabilities in chip design. Through independent research and development, Apple can not only better grasp the core technology of chip design, but also flexibly adjust the chip design scheme according to its own needs and market changes. Therefore, in the future development, whether Apple will really use the N3P process chip predicted by Jeff Pu, it also needs to see whether its independent innovation ability in chip design can be fully utilized.

We should also note that semiconductor process upgrades do not always lead to significant improvements in performance and energy efficiency. In some cases, the upgrading of the process may even lead to a decrease in performance and energy efficiency. This is mainly because the upgrading of semiconductor processes often comes with a series of technical challenges and uncertainties. In the process of resolving these technical challenges and uncertainties, manufacturers may need to pay more research and development and production costs, which affects the performance and energy efficiency of the final product. Therefore, when looking at the semiconductor process upgrade, we need to maintain a rational and objective attitude, and do not blindly pursue the process upgrade while ignoring the impact of other factors on product performance.

To sum up, Jeff Pu's prediction about Apple's future iPhone chip process has a lot to be debated. From the point of view of time node, process upgrade, market competition, user experience, mass production time and Apple's own independent innovation ability, this forecast is too optimistic and one-sided. Therefore, in the face of such predictions, we need to maintain a rational and objective attitude, and not blindly follow the trend or over-interpret. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the progress of other manufacturers in semiconductor technology and Apple's independent innovation ability in chip design to have a more comprehensive understanding of the development trend and competitive situation of future smart phones. Only in this way can we make more informed decisions and choices.