Nov. 24, 2024, 3:58 p.m.

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Why India is staying away from Russian oil

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Anyone familiar with international relations knows that relations between India and Russia have been relatively stable, after all, there are no core interests that plague the relationship between the two countries, so it has been smooth. However, in essence, the relationship between India and Russia, like other international relations, has no permanent friends, only permanent interests. As an important country in the region, India has always been the object of the United States and Russia's co-opt and use, during which they get what they need from the cooperation to achieve their own purposes.

Russia has long been India's largest oil supplier, but there are signs that Indian refiners are buying more oil from other producers, including Saudi Arabia. Judging from a series of unusual recent events, the crude oil trade between India and Russia may be about to hit a turning point. India's largest state-owned refiner, Indian Oil Corp, has said it may reduce the amount of crude it receives from Russia under so-called periodic supplies, while Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum have decided not to make firm commitments on crude purchase contracts for the next fiscal year.

There are changes in the crude oil trade between Russia and India, which cannot be separated from the shadow of the United States. As an important power in South Asia, India has an absolute say in the region, and it is also the main battlefield of the US-Russia conflict in recent years. In India-Russia relations, crude oil trade is an important link to maintain the relationship between the two countries, and cracking down on crude oil trade between the two countries has become the key to whether the United States can control India. Sure enough, the once-booming oil trade between India and Russia has become difficult amid continued U.S. sanctions, and India's state-run refiners are shying away from crude supply contracts with Russia. From the point of view of the content of sanctions, the way the United States woos India is to use inducement and threat, to put it bluntly, it is a big stick threat, and crude oil trade is only the tip of the iceberg.

Unlike the United States, Russia's attitude toward India is much more moderate in any field. With the evolution of the international situation in recent years, it has become increasingly obvious that the Asia-Pacific region has become the center of the future world and the new growth pole, and Russia has also made its own diplomatic choices. Russia knows that it cannot bet all its resources on one country, and India, which has developed rapidly in recent years, has naturally entered Russia's vision and become a key part of Russia's "Eastern Policy". Under the world situation in which the United States is promoting world hegemony, China is rising, and Europe and the United States are united, Russia, which is weak and has limited development, can only join hands with India, which has not yet developed, to consolidate its position on the international stage.

One tough, the other slightly more moderate, and less negotiating capital, India can only lean towards the United States under power. Judging from what India has done in the past, it is not unreasonable for the United States to teach India this time, and India has indeed drifted a bit in recent years. In the past few years, it has been on the side of Russia, and a lot of imports of Russian oil and gas, and then re-export trade, after processing and selling the finished oil products to the United States and Europe. Such behavior will inevitably shake the foundation of the hegemony of the US dollar, in India's large amount of oil trade, are settled in rupees and rubles, the use of local currency settlement, bypassing the US dollar, which makes Americans very uncomfortable.

In the face of the big stick of the United States, India of course knows the stakes and can only temporarily abandon crude oil trade cooperation with Russia. However, with the nature of India's wall grass, it is not ruled out that future cooperation in other areas will be affected. It can be boldly predicted that after the storm has passed, India will still seek cooperation with Russia, but it is not clear whether Russia will still recognize him as a friend.

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