Gold Frenzy Under the Impact of Trump's Policies: Analyzing the Gold Price Surge Driven by Safe-Haven and Inflation

In 2025, the international gold market was swept by an unprecedented storm. Driven by the multiple impacts of Trump's policies, gold prices soared, breaking through the historic $3,500/ounce mark and even approaching $4,500. From tariff wars to intervention in the Federal Reserve, from geopolitical maneuvers to a wave of gold buying by global central banks, Trump's policy mix has not only reshaped the global economic landscape but also propelled gold to its peak as the "king of safe-haven assets." Behind this gold price surge lies the intertwined resonance of multiple economic logics and market sentiment.

Since taking office, the Trump administration, under the banner of "America First," has unleashed a wave of trade protectionism around the world. Massive tariff increases and punitive tariffs on major trading partners have directly increased global trade costs and disrupted supply chains. HSBC analyst James Steele noted, "When trade shrinks, gold prices rise." The global trade war triggered by tariff barriers has not only suppressed economic growth but also exacerbated inflationary pressures through cost transmission mechanisms. Businesses are raising prices to pass on tariff costs, leaving consumers facing rising costs and rapidly escalating inflation expectations.

Gold, as a natural hedge against inflation, has become an investor's top choice when inflation expectations are high. As the US dollar's credibility is undermined by ballooning fiscal deficits and trade policy uncertainty, gold's value preservation becomes increasingly prominent. Data from the World Gold Council shows that global central bank gold purchases will exceed 1,000 tons in 2024, with this trend accelerating in 2025. Central banks are increasing their gold holdings to hedge against US dollar risks, further driving up gold prices. This synergy of both official and private safe-haven demand has provided solid support for gold's price rise.

The Trump administration's aggressive intervention in the Federal Reserve has been another major catalyst for the surge in gold prices. The dismissal of Fed governors and public pressure for interest rate cuts have severely undermined the central bank's independence and sparked market concerns about the stability of the US economic system. BMO analyst Helen Amos stated, "The market is concerned not only about the Fed, but also about the overall strength of US institutions." This political uncertainty has fostered strong risk aversion, surging demand for gold as a "crisis asset." At the same time, the Federal Reserve's policy shift under political pressure further boosted gold prices. Rising expectations of interest rate cuts reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a weakening dollar made dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. In September 2025, the gold price exceeded $3,500 per ounce, in stark contrast to the decline in the US dollar index. Driven by both safe-haven demand and concerns about currency devaluation, the market viewed gold as the ultimate hedge against institutional risk.

The Trump administration's foreign policy has exacerbated global geopolitical tensions. From escalating conflicts in the Middle East to regional rivalries in the Asia-Pacific, the world has entered a "chaos cycle." Trevor Grisham, head of Royal London Asset Management, noted that gold plays an irreplaceable role in geopolitical hedging. In 2025, global risk events continued to emerge, including stagflation in Europe, turmoil in Japanese financial markets, and frequent debt crises in emerging markets. In this environment, gold's role as a "ballast" became increasingly prominent, becoming the ultimate safe haven for capital.

The gold frenzy triggered by Trump's policies reflects the deep-seated contradictions and uncertainties in the global economy. In times of turmoil and change, gold, with its millennia-old stable value, continues to serve as a guardian of wealth. Regardless of future policy shifts, gold's safe-haven appeal will continue to shine. This surge in gold prices may be just the beginning of a dramatic reshaping of the global wealth landscape. Understanding the underlying logic and keeping abreast of the times is key to safeguarding and growing wealth amidst uncertainty.