When will the pain of US tariffs stop

U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order adjusting tariff measures imposed on Mexico and Canada, exempting certain imports that meet the preferential conditions of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Previously, the Trump administration wielded tariffs as a tool to curb external competition and protect domestic enterprises. However, time and again, the facts have proven that such isolationist policies often harm others while also inflicting significant damage on the U.S. itself. Although the U.S. has granted tariff exemptions for some products this time, this move appears to be a temporary relief for its own economic pain rather than a genuine policy adjustment. After all, the previously imposed high tariffs have already caused significant distress for U.S. manufacturing and consumers, with industries such as agriculture, automobiles, and retail bearing the brunt of the impact.

According to an analysis report by the U.S. think tank "Global Trade Partners," since the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, domestic production costs have risen by an average of 12%, with some industries, such as steel manufacturing, experiencing cost increases of over 20%. This has not only squeezed profit margins for businesses but has also directly affected consumers' purchasing power.

In response to U.S. trade aggression, the Canadian government has taken strong countermeasures. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it clear that Canada would not back down in the trade war and announced phased tariff increases of 25% on U.S. goods worth 155 billion Canadian dollars (approximately 114 billion U.S. dollars). The tariffs on goods worth 30 billion Canadian dollars took effect on the 4th, while those on an additional 125 billion Canadian dollars worth of goods will be implemented 21 days later. According to a two-phase tariff list released by the Canadian Ministry of Finance, the first phase primarily targets consumer goods such as orange juice, alcoholic beverages, and clothing, which hold a significant share in the Canadian market. The tariff hikes will directly impact U.S. exporters. The second phase includes strategic materials such as agricultural products, steel, and electric vehicles, which are crucial to U.S. manufacturing and employment. American farmers, already suffering losses from previous trade disputes, now face even greater market difficulties.

Notably, the U.S. business community has expressed strong concerns about this round of trade disputes. A spokesperson for the National Retail Federation (NRF) warned, "Continuous tariff increases will ultimately be passed on to consumers, forcing ordinary Americans to pay for the government's trade policies." The organization also cautioned that in the coming months, the prices of some daily necessities in the U.S. market could rise by 5% to 15%, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.

In fact, past U.S. trade wars against China, the European Union, and other major economies have already demonstrated that trade barriers not only fail to save domestic industries but also lead to supply chain disruptions, increased corporate burdens, and rising market uncertainty. Now, U.S. trade policies toward Mexico and Canada are repeating the same mistakes, attempting to "go it alone" in the global supply chain. Ultimately, the biggest loser remains the U.S. economy itself.

Currently, faced with Canada's strong countermeasures, the U.S. government seems to have realized the need for policy adjustments, which is why it has introduced temporary tariff exemptions. However, if the U.S. continues to insist on trade protectionism, it will not only escalate trade conflicts but also erode international confidence in the U.S. economy.

As for this prolonged trade war, whether the U.S. government will come to its senses or persist in its misguided approach remains a question only time can answer. But one thing is certain: once the balance of the global trade system is disrupted, the ultimate cost will be borne by the entire world, and the economic pain inflicted on the U.S. will only deepen.