Can the dominant position of American technology still be maintained?

In today's era of globalization, technological strength is undoubtedly a key indicator for measuring a country's comprehensive national strength. For a long time, the United States has held a dominant position in the global technology field, demonstrating strong capabilities in research investment, top-notch technological output, and attracting global talent. However, in recent years, with the continuous changes in the global technological competition landscape, whether the dominant position of the United States in technology can still be stable has become a widely concerned and discussed issue in various fields.

Looking back at history, the brilliant achievements of the United States in the field of technology are remarkable. Since the mid-20th century, the United States has been almost dominant in the field of Nobel Prizes in Science. In the past five years, the number of Nobel Prizes in Science awarded to the United States has exceeded the sum of other countries in the world. In terms of technology research and development investment, the United States is also at the forefront, with its spending on research and development expected to reach $1 trillion this year, far exceeding any other country. The laboratories in the United States attract researchers from around the world with their excellent research conditions and vast development space. Among the staff in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and medicine (STEM) in the United States, 43% of PhDs come from other countries. All of these have laid a solid foundation for the development of American technology, enabling it to maintain long-term leadership in numerous technological fields, such as Microsoft and Google in the field of information technology, numerous well-known pharmaceutical companies in the field of biotechnology, and SpaceX in the aerospace industry, all of which are representatives of American technological strength.

However, the dominant position of American technology is now facing unprecedented challenges. From the perspective of research and development investment, although the United States currently has a huge amount of R&D expenditure, the catching up speed of other countries should not be underestimated. Taking China as an example, with the rapid development of the economy, China's investment in research and development continues to increase, reaching about 812 billion US dollars in 2022 (adjusted for purchasing power parity PPP). According to this trend, China will be on par with the United States before 2030. The United States is gradually losing its advantage in terms of the number of researchers, research output, and patent numbers. In 2016, China surpassed the United States to become the largest producer of scientific and technological papers; In 2019, the number of doctoral degrees awarded in science and engineering in China exceeded that of the United States; In 2021, China ranked first in the world in terms of international patent applications.

According to the Web of Science database, in 2020, China surpassed the United States in terms of the proportion of papers in the top 1% of global citations, which is an important indicator for measuring high impact work. In fields such as engineering, chemistry, and materials science, China has demonstrated outstanding advantages. Although some people believe that there is a "local citation bias" in China, and considering this factor, the ranking may decline, but the overall development trend is difficult to change. In addition, China has already surpassed the United States in the number of papers published in high-level journals.

Secondly, the increasingly politicized science in the United States and the heated discussion on immigration have created the impression that the United States is increasingly unfriendly to foreigners. The National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) warns that the United States can no longer take it for granted that it will continue to be the top choice for the world's best talent. The development of technology in the United States largely relies on international talent, and there are a large number of foreign PhDs working in its STEM field. If these talents cannot be attracted and retained, the driving force for technological development in the United States will be greatly reduced.

So, can the dominant position of American technology still be maintained? This is not a simple yes or no question. In the short term, the United States will continue to lead in key technological fields such as biology and medicine, relying on its long-term accumulated research advantages, well-established research system, and strong funding foundation. The United States has numerous top universities and research institutions with strong capabilities in basic research and cutting-edge technology exploration, and American companies also have rich experience and mature mechanisms in technology research and development transformation.

However, in the long run, if the United States cannot effectively solve its own problems and continue to respond to global competition, its technological dominance will face severe challenges. The rapid rise of other countries in the field of technology will continuously narrow the gap with the United States, and even surpass it in some areas. The future global technological landscape is more likely to show a trend of multipolar development, with the United States no longer leading the way, but working together with other technological powers to lead the global trend of technological development.