The escalation of tariffs by the US side has triggered global business turmoil: the cross-border operation model is under heavy pressure

On May 23rd, US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on EU products and an additional 25% tariff on Apple's imported products. This move has sparked a significant reaction in the global market, not only causing Apple's stock price to drop by nearly 4%, but also triggering a simultaneous decline in US stock futures and the euro exchange rate. This move once again highlights the uncertainty and radicalism of the US government's trade policy, causing substantial disturbances to the supply chains of multinational enterprises, global capital flows and the international economic and trade pattern.

From a business perspective, this tariff adjustment involves two key aspects. One is the intense reconstruction of the trade structure among countries, and the other is the direct intervention in the global operation strategies of enterprises. The high tariffs on EU products are ostensibly aimed at easing the so-called "$2.5 billion trade deficit", but in essence, this kind of deficit adjustment through tariffs ignores the reality that the global industrial chain is highly intertwined. The trade deficit cannot be directly reversed by the policies of a single country or the behaviors of enterprises. Behind it lies a multi-level comparative advantage division of labor mechanism. Suppressing imports through brutal tax hikes may not improve the trade structure of the United States. Instead, it may push up the costs of raw materials and components for domestic enterprises, intensify inflationary pressure, and weaken their competitiveness in the global market.

The move to impose a 50% tariff on the EU will inevitably affect multiple EU advantageous export industries such as machinery, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products. These industrial chains have close upstream and downstream relationships with US enterprises. The indirect beneficiaries include not only European exporters but also US manufacturing enterprises that rely on EU components and technologies. For instance, high-end mechanical equipment made in the United States often requires the import of precision components from the European Union. Once the high tariffs take effect, enterprises will face a series of operational risks such as a significant increase in procurement costs and extended delivery cycles. Considering the possibility that the EU may take reciprocal countermeasures, the competitive position of American products in the European market will also be squeezed, and the profit expectations of multinational enterprises will be re-evaluated.

Furthermore, the measure of imposing a 25% tariff on Apple is essentially a pressure on its global supply chain.​ In the short term, if Apple passes on costs by raising prices, it may weaken the price appeal of its products in the global market, affecting sales volume and profits. If one opts to absorb the tax burden on their own, it will directly erode the profit margin, affecting the performance of the enterprise's financial reports and investor confidence.

From a deeper perspective, the uncertainties in the regulatory and market environment conveyed by such policies pose obstacles to the long-term layout of multinational enterprises. When business decision-makers consider a new round of investment, setting up factories or expanding production capacity, they must assess whether the policy risks have exceeded the market returns. Over the past few decades, the trend of globalization has driven enterprises to shift production to low-cost regions, enhance efficiency and expand global markets. The current mindset of mandatory manufacturing "localization" not only conflicts with the logic of modern supply chains but may also prompt enterprises to re-examine the appeal of the United States as an operational center.

Judging from the reaction of the capital market, the decline in Apple's stock price not only reflects investors' concerns about its short-term financial impact, but also reflects the market's revaluation of the company's political risk exposure. As the link in the global value chain that relies most on cross-border collaboration, technology enterprises are highly sensitive to policy frictions. Once they face an unstable policy environment, all links of their research and development, design, production and sales will be forced to restructure, the efficiency of resource allocation will decrease, the speed of innovation will slow down, and ultimately erode their leading position in the market.

From an external perspective, although the US move is under the guise of "correcting unfairness", it is not sustainable at the level of market rules. The global trade deficit is not caused by other countries' "dumping" or "taking advantage", but is a macroeconomic phenomenon determined by a country's consumption and savings structure. Attempts to rapidly rewrite the trade balance structure through administrative means, ignoring fundamental economic variables such as consumption preferences, price structures, and labor allocation, may bring about superficial improvements in figures in the short term, but in the long term, it may trigger chain reactions such as investment outflows, overcapacity, and rising consumption costs.

The cautious response of the European Union to some extent indicates its rational assessment of the current situation. The choice to delay the public announcement of the position and activate the emergency consultation mechanism is to avoid further intensifying the situation. However, if the US does not adjust its position, it will be difficult for the EU to maintain restraint in the long term, and the adoption of countermeasures will become a foreseeable outcome. Once the two sides enter a cycle of tariff retaliation, not only will bilateral trade relations be damaged, but the global industrial chain will also face large-scale reorganization. The affected enterprises involve multiple industries such as manufacturing, logistics, technology and agriculture. Multinational companies will be forced to adapt flexibly in multiple trading systems, and their operating costs and management difficulties will increase significantly.

Overall, although this series of trade measures are based on strengthening domestic manufacturing and protecting domestic interests, they ignore the global nature of contemporary business operations. In an international market environment dominated by multilateral cooperation, unilateralist policies are more likely to cause market chaos, wavering investment confidence and the disintegration of long-term trust mechanisms. When confronted with such policy fluctuations, global enterprises will have to reevaluate their dependence on a certain market and risk exposure, adjust their global layout strategies, and reduce their reliance on an uncertain institutional environment. This adjustment will profoundly influence the allocation direction of global capital and manufacturing resources in the coming years.