June 9, 2025, 11:35 a.m.

商业

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报告:美国官方贸易数据夸大与中国脱钩程度

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咨询机构佳富龙洲(Gavekal Dragonomics)一份报告显示,美国对中国的进口依赖下降程度低于官方数据显示的水平。

据彭博社星期五(10月13日)报道,佳富龙洲分析师盖特利(Thomas Gatley)在一份报告中写道,自华盛顿对中国商品征收大规模关税以来,来自中国的进口商品占比下降了两至三个百分点,而不是美国政府数据显示的下降八个百分点左右。

报告称,美国官方数据显示的比例下降,部分原因是中国商品改道东南亚和其他第三国,以及美国进口商为减少关税影响而低开发票。

美国普查局数据显示,在截至今年7月之前的12个月,美国从中国进口的商品平均占比为14.6%;而在截至2018年3月之前的12个月,该占比曾达到21.8%的峰值。当时正值时任美国总统特朗普对华贸易战加码前夕。

盖特利认为,中国商品在美国进口中的实际占比可能接近18%,低于之前的21%。他补充到,这一结果“虽然不是微不足道,但也不足以扭转乾坤”。

盖特利写道,由于尝试避免关税,中国海关收集的出口数据比美国数据更能反映美国从中国的进口情况。他指出,根据中国的出口数据,中国商品占美国进口的份额明显下降了八个百分点,其中低开发票可能占了约三个百分点,通过东南亚的转道贸易可能占大约两个百分点。

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