The impact of Israel's air strike on Hamas executives in Qatar on the crude oil financial market

On September 9, 2025, a piece of news that shocked the international community came out: 15 Israeli fighter jets roared into the air and launched an air strike on the top Hamas officials in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Within seconds, about 10 missiles were fired, directly targeting the office of Hamas senior official Khalil Haya. Although Hamas confirmed the deaths of five members, Khalil Haya himself survived. This incident quickly became a global focus, and in the financial market sector, the reaction of the crude oil market was particularly intense.

In the short term, as soon as the news broke out, the price of crude oil fluctuated significantly. The futures price of Brent crude oil rose from around $66 per barrel to break through $67 at one point, with an intraday increase of as much as 1.9%. WTI crude oil also rose rapidly, with a significant increase. This is mainly because geopolitical conflicts are one of the key factors influencing crude oil prices, and this incident occurred in the Middle East - the world's most important oil-producing region. Although Qatar is not a superpower in crude oil production, the situation in the Middle East where it is located is sensitive. Israel's attack instantly ignited market concerns over the disruption of oil supply. Investors are worried that the conflict will further expand, thereby affecting oil production and transportation throughout the Middle East region. For instance, once the conflict spreads, important oil transportation channels like the Strait of Hormuz may face the risk of being blocked or attacked, which in turn could lead to a shortage of oil supply and push up oil prices. This expectation of future supply risks has enabled the market to respond quickly in the short term, adding a "risk premium" to crude oil prices.

However, if we take a long-term perspective and analyze the long-term impact of this incident on the crude oil market, the conclusion is not so simple. The current supply and demand pattern of the global crude oil market is undergoing subtle changes, and many institutions have strengthened their judgment on the pressure of oversupply in the crude oil market. From the demand side, the pace of global economic growth has slowed down, and the growth rate of demand for crude oil has also declined accordingly. For instance, during the economic transformation of some emerging economies, the structure of their reliance on energy has gradually adjusted, and the demand for oil is no longer growing as strongly as before. From the supply side, some oil-producing countries have continued to increase production, and there are also certain differences within OPEC+ regarding production policies. Against this backdrop, the market generally expects that the global oil market will soon face an oversupply situation. Although the recent Israeli attack has caused market panic in the short term, from the perspective of the long-term supply and demand fundamentals, it is difficult for it to change the global trend of oversupply of crude oil. If there is no further escalation of subsequent conflicts that lead to substantial damage to oil production capacity or transportation disruptions, oil prices, after experiencing a short-term surge, may still return to a downward track dominated by the fundamentals of supply and demand.

At the financial investment level, this incident has also brought many uncertainties and challenges to crude oil investors. For investors holding long positions in crude oil, they may gain certain profits in the short term due to the rise in oil prices, but they also face the risk of subsequent price drops. Short sellers, on the other hand, need to make cautious judgments and avoid blindly following the trend when market sentiment fluctuates sharply. At the same time, fluctuations in crude oil prices will also affect enterprises in the related industrial chain. In industries such as aviation and transportation, crude oil is one of the main costs. The rise in oil prices will directly increase operating costs and compress profit margins. For oil extraction enterprises, the rise in oil prices may bring more profit opportunities.

The Israeli air strike against the top Hamas officials in Qatar has caused a stir in the crude oil and financial markets. In the short term, it triggered sharp fluctuations in oil prices, reflecting the significant impact of geopolitical conflicts on market sentiment. In the long term, the supply and demand fundamentals of the global crude oil market will still largely determine the trend of oil prices. Investors and related enterprises need to closely monitor the subsequent development of the event, comprehensively consider various factors, and make reasonable investment and business decisions.