Nuclear Arms Control Treaty Expires; Trump Administration Considers Expanding Nuclear Weapons Deployment

On February 5, 2026, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the only remaining bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, officially expired, marking the complete collapse of the U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control system established since the Cold War. Against this backdrop, the Trump administration has recently released clear signals that it is actively evaluating and considering deploying more nuclear weapons to further strengthen its nuclear deterrence capabilities, a move that has aroused profound concerns in the international community about a new round of nuclear arms race and global strategic stability.

It is reported that the New START Treaty officially entered into force in 2011 and once served as the core pillar for maintaining U.S.-Russia strategic balance. The treaty stipulated that both parties limit their deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 and their deployed delivery vehicles to 700, and established a sound inspection and data exchange mechanism. Before the treaty expired, although the Trump administration briefly stated its hope to maintain the treaty restrictions, it never took substantive actions and has long promoted the nuclear arsenal modernization program, laying the groundwork for subsequent expansion of deployment.

Currently, the Trump administration's intention to expand nuclear weapons deployment has been manifested through multiple channels. U.S. Secretary of Defense Hagerty recently stated clearly at a congressional hearing that the "nuclear triad" is the core of U.S. deterrence, and the trillion-dollar national defense budget will fully guarantee the absolute advantage of U.S. nuclear deterrence. According to the White House's 2026 fiscal year defense budget draft, the funds earmarked solely for nuclear arsenal modernization amount to 37.7 billion U.S. dollars. If projects such as the "Golden Dome" missile defense system and the "Sentinel" missile are included, the actual investment will far exceed this figure.

Analysts believe that the Trump administration's consideration stems from multiple strategic demands. On the one hand, with the expiration of the New START Treaty, there is no longer any legally binding upper limit on the number of nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia. The Trump administration attempts to consolidate its nuclear advantage through expanded deployment to respond to what it calls "global security threats". On the other hand, this move is also regarded as an important part of its domestic political and diplomatic strategies. By demonstrating a tough nuclear policy, it caters to the demands of domestic conservatives and conveys "security commitments" to its allies.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration has repeatedly released signals of nuclear expansion before. It not only plans to develop new sea-launched nuclear cruise missiles and low-yield nuclear warheads, but also has repeatedly claimed to resume nuclear tests. Even though the U.S. Secretary of Energy tried to downplay the issue, stating that the tests are only "system tests", it still cannot eliminate the concerns of the international community. In addition, the Arms Control Association revealed that the Trump administration is planning to revise its nuclear use policy, which may relax restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons, further increasing the risk of nuclear war.

The expiration of the treaty and the U.S. tendency towards nuclear expansion have had a significant impact on global strategic stability. Currently, among the more than 12,200 nuclear warheads worldwide, more than 9,600 are in a usable state, almost all of which belong to the United States and Russia. After the treaty expired, the lack of inspection and notification mechanisms between the United States and Russia is likely to trigger strategic miscalculations. Routine military exercises, weapons deployments, etc., may all be misinterpreted, which could escalate into conflicts.

The international community has reacted strongly to this. Dmitry Sergeyevich Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of Russia, clearly warned that if the United States resumes nuclear tests or expands nuclear deployment, Russia will take corresponding countermeasures. António Manuel de Oliveira Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, emphasized that "nuclear tests must never be allowed under any circumstances" and that the current global nuclear risk has reached an alarming level. China, Iran and other countries have also spoken out one after another, accusing the United States of undermining the international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation system and calling on the United States and Russia to return to the negotiating table.

Looking ahead, if the Trump administration officially promotes the expansion of nuclear weapons deployment, it will inevitably trigger a new round of nuclear arms race, leading more countries to question the fairness of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), promoting regional nuclear proliferation. In particular, regional countries such as Japan and South Korea may seek breakthroughs related to nuclear forces, exacerbating the risk of global nuclear disorder. Currently, the international community is closely monitoring the follow-up actions of the Trump administration, calling on all parties to exercise restraint, restart nuclear arms control negotiations, and rebuild the global nuclear security governance system.