The new tariff policy has taken effect, shaking the international economic and trade landscape

On July 23rd local time, the US Trade Representative Office issued a notice, announcing that based on Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, it would impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on dozens of countries and regions under the pretext of "forced labor", as an alternative to the expiring global import tariffs. The new tariffs will come into effect at 0:01 local time on July 24th. The global 60 trading partners will be divided into two tiers for taxation: 14 economies such as the EU, Canada, and the UK will be subject to an additional 10% tariff, while 46 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India will be subject to a higher 12.5% tariff. The policy covers 99.4% of US imported goods, with only a few categories such as energy, basic medicines, and aviation components being exempted. This "tariff club" has hit the global market, bringing complex and multi-faceted impacts.

Firstly, the multilateral trade rules have been severely damaged, and the foundation of the global free trade system has been shaken. The core principle established by the World Trade Organization is that all member countries enjoy uniform tariff treatment without discrimination. This time, the US's new policy directly breaks this bottom line, arbitrarily dividing the tax rates based on unilateral determination, and placing its domestic laws above the global common international trade rules. Previously, the World Trade Organization had repeatedly ruled that the US's past 301 tariff measures were违规. However， the US not only did not restrain itself but instead upgraded its policy tools， transforming short-term temporary tariffs into a long-term stable differentiated tariff system， completely undermining the credibility of the multilateral trade system. In the context of difficult multilateral negotiations， countries have shifted their directions and are flocking to promote regional free trade agreements. RCEP， the EU's bilateral free trade agreement， and the Latin American regional trade agreement have become the preferred choices for countries to hedge risks. The global unified market has gradually fragmented into multiple regional trade blocks， and the era of rapid globalization has officially slowed down. Regionalized and small-circle trade has become the new trend.

Secondly， the global industrial chain has been completely restructured. Over the past few decades， the global industrial chain has pursued centralized production at low costs， with a large number of processing and manufacturing stages concentrated in a single country. However， after the introduction of the differentiated tariffs by the US， the core goal of multinational enterprises has shifted from "reducing production costs" to "avoiding trade policy risks". The global supply chain has undergone a disruptive adjustment. It is worth noting that the US customs has simultaneously tightened the verification of origin， and simply transporting goods to a third country and conducting simple processing no longer can avoid tariffs. The compliance costs of global cross-border trade have significantly increased. The customs declaration and traceability review processes for foreign trade enterprises have become more complex， and the operational pressure on small and medium-sized traders has sharply increased. The shipping market has also shown significant changes. Before the implementation of this policy， enterprises concentrated on transporting goods and clearing customs during the transitional period. In the long term， countries have reduced exports to the US， and the trade volume on routes such as Asia-Europe， Asia-Pacific to the Middle East， and Latin American internal routes has continued to rise. The global shipping center has gradually shifted away from the North American market.

Thirdly， the global economic and trade geopolitical landscape has been reshaped. The most long-term impact of this tariff policy is to completely change the global economic and trade geopolitical relationship. The US has transformed the differentiated tariffs into a regular economic diplomacy tool. In the future， trade frictions will become the norm in international interactions， and countries will no longer simply pursue deep integration with the US but will actively build independent trade cycles outside of the US. The BRICS countries continue to expand， the economic cooperation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization continues to deepen， and the trade negotiations between China and the EU are advancing steadily. Major economies are banding together to keep warm and reduce their reliance on the US single market. In the past， the global economic center was biased towards North America. Now， it is gradually shifting towards Asia-Pacific and developing countries. The regional trade scale has expanded year by year. The competition logic of various industries has also undergone a transformation. No longer focusing solely on production costs, supply chain security, market diversification, and the autonomy of local industries have become the core goals for the development of industries in various countries. The pace of global manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading has continued to accelerate.

In conclusion, the unilateral tariff policy of the United States this time is a typical act of trade protectionism and economic bullying. No party can truly benefit from it. In the future, only by adhering to multilateral cooperation, promoting market diversification, and establishing regional free trade networks can we resist the impact of unilateralism and stabilize the basic foundation of global economic recovery.