The United States announced that Ukraine will hold a presidential election. Where will Zelensky go?

On March 21, local time, Steven Witkoff, the US special envoy for the Middle East, made a shocking statement, declaring that Ukraine will hold a presidential election and that the Ukrainian government has reached a consensus on this. As soon as the news came out, international public opinion was in an uproar. However, Ukraine did not respond to this, making the incident full of uncertainty. For a time, questions such as "whether Zelensky will step down and whether it is a unilateral decision of the United States" became the focus of global attention.

Since Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine in 2019, his road to power has been full of twists and turns. In February 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalated comprehensively, plunging Ukraine into a quagmire of war. As the country entered a wartime state, the new presidential election originally scheduled for March 2024 was forced to be postponed. According to the normal process, Zelensky's presidential term should have ended in May 2024, but now he is still in office, which has also become a handle for some forces to attack him.

The United States announced at this moment that Ukraine will hold a presidential election, and the intention behind it is worth pondering. A series of recent actions by the Trump team show that their dissatisfaction with Zelensky has gradually surfaced. As early as February, Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, called for Ukraine to hold general elections. Subsequently, Trump himself repeatedly ridiculed Zelensky on social media, even calling him a "dictator who refuses to vote." The quarrel in the White House on February 28 further intensified the conflict between the two sides. It is reported that Trump originally planned to replace him immediately, but only decided to wait for the election to vote Zelensky out after being persuaded by his staff.

From the perspective of the interests of the United States, they may think that Zelensky's performance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not met expectations and cannot better serve the US strategy. On the one hand, the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to an increase in US investment, but has failed to achieve ideal strategic results; on the other hand, Zelensky has differences with the United States on some key issues, such as the US-Ukraine mineral agreement, which has caused the United States to worry about its control. Therefore, the United States tried to support a more obedient agent to come to power by pushing Ukraine to hold elections.

However, the United States unilaterally announced that Ukraine would hold a presidential election. This practice lacks sufficient basis and faces many practical obstacles. From the perspective of the domestic situation in Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) passed a motion on February 25 regarding "no elections can be held in wartime", which clearly stated that the Ukrainian Constitution does not allow elections to be held in wartime. Moreover, many politicians in Ukraine, such as former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former President Petro Poroshenko, have expressed opposition to wartime elections. Although they are in political competition with Zelensky, they have a consensus on this issue, which reflects Ukraine's cautious attitude towards wartime elections.

Looking at public opinion, although factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have a certain impact on Zelensky's support rate, his support rate is still far ahead of other competitors. The poll results released by the British Severson Research Company in early March showed that Zelensky's support rate was 44%, Poroshenko was 10%, and Tymoshenko was 5.7%. This shows that, at least for now, Zelensky still has a certain support base in the hearts of the Ukrainian people, and it is not easy for the United States to easily replace him through elections.

In addition, the actual operation of the election is also difficult. About 3,000 polling stations in Ukraine have been destroyed in the war, the voter registration list is outdated, and many voters are missing. Sergei Rahmanin, a member of the National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, said that even if he worked day and night, it would take at least three months to restore the registration. It is impossible to hold a formal election within two months, and it is "unrealistic, but possible" to hold an election within six months. In this case, if an election is forced, the fairness and legitimacy of the election results will be questioned.

For Zelensky, he is also actively responding to the threat of being replaced. On March 19, he took the initiative to call Trump to try to understand the content of the "double-Putin" call. Although Trump ignored his request for assistance during the call and also put forward a request for the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, Zelensky is still trying his best to deal with it. On the one hand, he emphasized Ukraine's sovereignty and interests in public, and on the other hand, he was also trying to balance the relationship with the United States to avoid being completely abandoned.

If Zelensky steps down, what impact will it have on the situation in Ukraine? After the new leader takes office, Ukraine's position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may undergo a major change. If pro-American forces come to power, they may continue to follow the United States, but they may not be able to effectively integrate domestic forces due to internal conflicts and external pressures; if pro-Russia or neutral forces come to power, they may promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and seek a peaceful solution to the conflict, but this may trigger dissatisfaction and sanctions from the United States and other Western countries. In either case, Ukraine will face a period of uncertainty, and the road to national reconstruction and stable development will be more tortuous.

The United States unilaterally announced that Ukraine will hold a presidential election. Behind it are its complex strategic considerations, but this decision ignores the laws, public opinion and reality in Ukraine. Whether Zelensky will step down is still full of variables. In the future, where will the situation in Ukraine go, whether it will usher in a new turn after the election or fall into deeper chaos, the international community is waiting to see.