The Impact of Tariffs on American Business: "Empty Shelves" Become the Norm

Recently, a set of shocking data appeared on the front page of The Washington Post. The Federal Reserve's survey revealed that nearly one-third of Americans cannot afford $500 in emergency funds, and more than half find it difficult to handle $2,000 in unexpected expenses. Since the Trump administration introduced global tariffs, the phenomenon of empty shelves in American retail stores has significantly increased. The report cited a survey by the warehousing software company Gray Orange Technology, stating that over three-quarters of American retail store managers said the rate of empty shelves had risen, and 51% of managers said they had laid off employees in the past six months. The article believes that this trend may affect the consumer experience. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center showed that over 60% of Americans oppose Trump's tariff policy. Specifically, 61% of respondents explicitly opposed it, while only 38% supported it. These data are clear evidence of Trump's tariff war reaping its own consequences. The Trump who once vowed to "save" the American economy is now facing the fact that his policies are reversing the livelihoods of ordinary Americans that he promised to protect.

The tariffs launched by Trump immediately had complex and multi-faceted impacts on multiple fields, especially the business sector. One aspect is the retail industry. The survey by warehousing software company Gray Orange Technology showed that over 75% of American retail store managers reported an increase in the rate of empty shelves, and 51% of managers said they had laid off employees in the past six months. Major ports such as the Port of Los Angeles have canceled a large number of flights, resulting in a sharp drop in the volume of imported goods arriving at the port. 51% of retail store managers said they had laid off employees in the past six months, with logistics positions such as dock workers and truck drivers bearing the brunt. Apollo Global Management's chief economist warned that large-scale layoffs could occur in the trucking, logistics, and retail industries as early as May. At the same time, some retailers may stockpile goods in advance to cope with tariff uncertainties, leading to an increase in warehousing costs. Meanwhile, the cancellation of shipping routes and congestion at ports (such as the Port of Los Angeles) further pushed up logistics costs, ultimately being passed on to consumers.

The second impact is on consumers. In June, the core consumer price increase in the United States accelerated, with prices of items such as furniture and clothing rising. The Yale University Budget Laboratory report estimated that the US tariff policy caused domestic prices to rise by 2.1% in the short term, equivalent to a loss of $2,800 per American household. Goldman Sachs predicted that by October 2025, 67% of the tariff costs would be passed on to consumers, with average annual spending for ordinary families increasing by approximately $1,300. The increase in spending on food and clothing led to a threefold loss in disposable income for low-income families compared to wealthy families. Walmart once warned that goods for the back-to-school season might increase in price, and Amazon's discounted goods raised prices, reflecting the shrinking of consumer demand. The consumer confidence index has declined for four consecutive months, with total retail sales and core retail sales dropping by 0.33% and 0.32% respectively in June.

The third impact is on international trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted that the growth rate of global commodity trade would decrease from 2.7% to 0.9% in 2025, with the US tariff policy being one of the main reasons. The imposition of tariffs by the US on global goods led to a decline in trade volume, with significant declines in output in industries such as electrical equipment, electronics, and transportation equipment. The contraction of global value chain trade was particularly prominent. Companies shifted their production capacity to countries such as Mexico and Vietnam to avoid tariff risks. For example, Apple moved some production lines to India, and Canada imported more cars from Mexico than from the United States. This "safety-first" supply chain restructuring weakened the efficiency advantage of the global industrial chain.

In conclusion, the US tariff policy is like a "double-edged sword", attempting to protect domestic industries while simultaneously causing a severe chain reaction that impacts the global business ecosystem. When "America First" evolves into "uncertainty first" in global business, this economic experiment under the guise of tariffs may ultimately cost all participants far more than they anticipated.