Trump's tariff policy has triggered a dual shock in the consumer market and corporate ecology

Recently, the Trump administration's policy of imposing tariffs on multiple countries has been implemented, and this trade war under the guise of "reciprocity" has quickly spread to the consumer end and business operations. From the soaring prices of everyday consumer goods such as computers and clothing, to the wave of layoffs by manufacturing giants like Boeing and Ford, tariff policies are reshaping the US economic ecology with unexpected force.

In the tariff list imposed by the Trump administration on 14 countries including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, electronic products and textiles have become the key targets of attack. Taking computers as an example, data from the US Department of Commerce shows that computer prices will increase by nearly 5% year-on-year in June 2025, while the forecast from the Yale University Budget Lab is even more severe: if tariffs continue, the short-term increase will reach 18.2%, and the long-term increase will still maintain 7.7%. Behind this trend is the layer by layer transmission of supply chain costs - Malaysia, as the second largest source of semiconductor imports to the United States, has been forced to raise prices for its chips exported to the United States due to a 25% tariff, directly pushing up the prices of end products from brands such as Dell and HP. The price pressure in the clothing, footwear, and hat industry is more significant. Vietnam, as the largest importer of footwear to the United States, faces a 46% tariff on its exported goods, resulting in a short-term increase of 40% in shoe prices and 38% in clothing prices for American consumers. What is more noteworthy is that tariff policies are changing the layout of the global consumer goods supply chain: countries such as Cambodia and Laos have been kicked out of the supplier list due to over 40% ultra-high tariffs, while Mexico, although temporarily exempt from tariffs due to the USMCA, has seen its manufacturing costs rise by 15% due to the surge in US demand, creating a new dilemma of "tariff exemptions without price reductions".

The case of Ford Motor is highly representative. This car company suffered a loss of $1.1 billion due to tariffs in the second quarter of 2025, with a net profit plummeting by 35.4%, and was forced to announce the reduction of 24000 jobs. The supply chain dilemma reflects a crisis in the entire manufacturing industry: tariffs on gearbox components originally imported from China have skyrocketed from 10% to 54%, and the alternative solution of transferring production lines to Vietnam has become unfeasible due to Vietnam's 46% tariff. General Motors' situation has been even more tragic, with its global supply chain incurring an additional cost of $2 billion due to tariffs. In the second quarter alone, it laid off 12000 employees and suspended plans to expand its electric truck production line. The aviation industry has also not been spared. Although Boeing has not directly disclosed its layoff data, its supply chain companies have experienced a chain reaction: Kawasaki Heavy Industries in Japan was forced to close its Washington state factory due to a 30% increase in tariffs on aircraft components, resulting in a delivery delay rate for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner rising to 40%. This vicious cycle of tariffs, costs, layoffs, and declining production capacity is weakening the global competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry.

The model from the Yale University Budget Lab reveals the macro cost of tariffs: by 2025, the average annual expenditure of American households will increase by $2400, equivalent to a 3.2% decrease in disposable income. This pressure is already evident in the labor market - the non farm payroll in the United States only increased by 73000 in July, far below the expected 115000, while manufacturing layoffs accounted for as much as 62%. Even more severe is that tariff policies result in an annual loss of 0.5 percentage points in US GDP growth rate, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.1% by the end of 2026, reaching a new high since the 2020 pandemic. The contraction of the consumer end and the deterioration of the job market form a negative cycle. According to a report by Goldman Sachs, there is an 8-month lag in the transmission of tariffs on prices, which means that the United States will usher in a peak of "stagflation" in the fourth quarter of 2025: on the one hand, the continuous rise in prices of goods such as computers and clothing will push up CPI; On the other hand, the rising unemployment rate and stagnant income growth have suppressed consumer demand. The coexistence of "cost push inflation" and "demand deficit recession" is pushing the US economy to the edge of a cliff.

The Trump administration claims that tariff policies will "protect American jobs," but actual data reveals their counterproductive effects. For every job cut by Ford, its supply chain loses three indirect job opportunities, resulting in a multiplier effect that leads to manufacturing unemployment far exceeding government expectations. Ironically, tariff revenue did not fill the fiscal gap as expected - according to US Customs data, tariff revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, due to trade volume shrinking faster than tax rate increases. The ultimate victim of this trade war is the American middle class. When the prices of essential goods such as computers and clothing soar, when the wave of layoffs by giants like Boeing and Ford spreads, and when household spending increases by $2400 due to tariffs, the promise of "making America great again" is becoming a cruel footnote to the shrinking wallets of the middle class and the rising unemployment rate. History may remember this moment: in the summer of 2025, a tariff war under the guise of "reciprocity" ultimately resulted in American consumers and businesses jointly paying the bill.