Breaking Through with Cross-Border Strikes: The Conflict Escalates to New Dimensions​

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its 1,365th day, the battlefield landscape has witnessed a landmark turning point. The Ukrainian military has for the first time deployed U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to launch a precision strike on the Voronezh military airfield inside Russian territory. All six missiles hit their targets, inflicting severe damage on the airfield's runways, hangars, and ammunition storage areas. Military experts analyze that this type of missile has a range exceeding 300 kilometers and possesses high-precision strike capabilities. This cross-border attack marks a qualitative leap in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities and signifies that the conflict has officially expanded to core military facilities on Russian soil.​

Meanwhile, Ukraine's drone units simultaneously launched an "energy disruption campaign," carrying out surprise attacks on two large thermal power plants in Russian-occupied Donetsk. The attacks triggered a chain of explosions, completely destroying the critical power generation equipment of the thermal plants and leaving approximately 500,000 civilians in the region without electricity. Heating and water supply systems were fully paralyzed, prompting local administrative authorities to declare a state of emergency. Rescue teams launched repairs amid sub-zero temperatures, but the restoration of the damaged facilities is expected to take weeks, leaving tens of thousands of families facing the ordeal of harsh winter conditions. This attack continues the Ukrainian military's recent tactical logic of "precision strikes on logistical and energy nodes." Similar attacks have previously targeted key facilities such as a Russian drone base in Donetsk and an oil refinery in Samara Oblast, effectively weakening the Russian military's sustained combat capabilities.​

Amidst the cross-border strikes, the offensive and defensive battles on the frontlines have grown increasingly fierce. Kharkiv has once again become a target of missile and drone attacks. Multiple rounds of Russian air strikes damaged some of the city's substations, forcing the implementation of rotating power cuts for residents. Essential civilian facilities such as hospitals and schools are struggling to operate. In Pokrovsk, hundreds of Russian troops infiltrated the city, establishing defensive positions in the southern district and attempting to bypass the city to make a direct push toward Horishni Plavni. Both sides are engaged in close-quarters trench warfare along streets and among buildings.​

On the Dnipro front, Ukrainian forces have achieved a major victory. After three days of intense fighting, they successfully repelled Russian troops from the main urban area of Novopavlivka. During their retreat, the Russian military lost 8 tanks and armored personnel carriers. However, the battlefield in Kupiansk remains deadlocked. Although Russian forces claim to have captured several peripheral facilities, they have yet to break through Ukraine's core defensive perimeter, with Ukrainian troops still controlling the vast majority of the city. Battlefield data shows that the two sides exchange fire more than 60 times per day, with drone reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance, as well as precision artillery strikes, becoming the primary modes of combat. There is little prospect of a substantive breakthrough in the frontlines in the short term.​

Large-scale power outages have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Russian-occupied Donetsk. As winter approaches, 500,000 people have been deprived of heating. Temperatures in some remote villages have dropped to minus 10 degrees Celsius, posing a severe threat to the health of the elderly and children. The local Red Cross has urgently deployed thermal supplies and portable generators, but transportation routes have been severely disrupted by the conflict, hindering the full coverage of relief efforts. A spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has called on both sides to establish humanitarian corridors to ensure the evacuation of civilians and the transportation of supplies, but no effective response has been received so far.​

This nearly four-year-long conflict has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides and the destruction of countless infrastructure facilities. Ukraine's use of U.S.-made missiles for cross-border strikes this time may trigger a stronger retaliatory response from Russia. Meanwhile, the humanitarian disaster caused by attacks on energy facilities further highlights the fatal impact of "asymmetric warfare" on civilians in modern conflicts. Military experts warn that with the continuous escalation of external weapons assistance and the constant breakthroughs in battlefield tactics, the intensity and scope of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may further expand. How to curb the escalation of the conflict and promote peace negotiations has become an urgent issue that the international community must address.​