The US tariff policies continue to exert their influence, causing great hardship for the global economy

Recently, the World Bank lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%. Many international institutions have also followed suit and lowered their forecasts. The uncertainty of the US tariff policy is an important source of this global economic "cold air". A series of unilateral tariff policies of the US are impacting the global economic and trade order with overwhelming force, bringing unprecedented uncertainty to the global market and causing a sharp increase in global economic risks.

According to the reports from various institutions, the global economic growth rate has generally been lowered. The World Bank predicts that the economic growth of developed economies will be 1.2% this year, and the growth rate of the US economy has been significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4%. The growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies is expected to be 3.8%, which is also lower than the previous predictions. The reports from institutions such as the OECD, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund are equally pessimistic, all lowering the growth expectations for economies like the US, Canada, and Mexico. These data are like a series of cold diagnostic reports, announcing that the global economy is entering a growth predicament, and the US tariff policy is undoubtedly the key cause of this "disease".

The actual tariff rate imposed by the United States on imported goods has soared to "the highest level since 1938", and if "counter-tariffs" are fully implemented, it will reach "the highest level since the 1890s". This measure has a multifaceted impact on the global economy.

From the perspective of the global trade order, the tariff policy of the United States can be regarded as a "heavy bomb". For a long time, the global trade order has been based on rules and cooperation, with countries collaborating and cooperating based on their comparative advantages, jointly promoting global economic development. However, the unilateral tariff policy of the United States is like an unruly "troublemaker", disregarding the rules and wantonly destroying them. The once closely connected trade partnerships have become extremely fragile, and countries have taken countermeasures one after another. Trade frictions have been constantly emerging. Take the trade between China and the United States as an example. The United States imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, and China had no choice but to take corresponding measures. The trade exchanges between the two sides were greatly hindered, and the trade friction between the world's two largest economies has had an unimaginable impact on global trade. Many enterprises that rely on the global supply chain are facing shortages of raw materials and a significant increase in costs, and have no choice but to re-arrange their supply chains. This not only incurs a large amount of costs but also greatly undermines the stability and efficiency of the global supply chain.

For the United States itself, its tariff policy is also a "double-edged sword". The original intention of the United States in launching the trade war might have been to protect its domestic industries and reduce the trade deficit. However, reality has slapped it in the face with a resounding blow. The related industries in the United States did not thrive as expected; instead, they fell into difficulties. Take agriculture as an example. American farmers were originally the "victims" of the tariff policy. The retaliatory tariffs from countries like China led to a significant decline in the export of American agricultural products, and farmers' incomes dropped sharply. According to statistics, the export volume of American agricultural products dropped significantly during the trade war, and many farmers had to reduce their production scale and even faced the crisis of bankruptcy. In the manufacturing sector, tariffs led to an increase in the prices of imported raw materials, an increase in production costs for enterprises, and a decline in competitiveness. The automotive and steel industries in the United States have all been impacted to varying degrees. Some enterprises had to transfer their production lines overseas to seek lower costs and more stable supply chains.

From the reactions of the global market, the uncertainty brought about by the US tariff policy is like an "epidemic", causing panic in the global market. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated outright that the uncertainty in the US trade policy has exacerbated the global economic headwinds. Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank, Ehan Kosse, also said that the uncertainty brought about by the US tariffs is like "mist on the runway", dragging down the pace of global investment and dimming the economic prospects. Financial markets such as stock markets, currency markets, and bond markets have experienced significant fluctuations, and investor confidence has been undermined. The US stock market has repeatedly plunged after the introduction of the tariff policy, and the market value of many enterprises has shrunk significantly. Investors have withdrawn their funds, and the market has fallen into a slump. Global trade volume has also declined. The World Trade Organization predicts that the growth rate of global goods trade in 2025 will be -0.2%, and if the uncertainty in trade policies further increases, the decline could reach up to 1.5%. This means that global trade will enter a contraction phase, and the driving force for economic growth of various countries will be further weakened.

According to a poll conducted by the Harris Poll Institute at the American Political Research Center of Harvard University in the United States, the majority of voters believe that the tariff policy is the "greatest failure" of the new administration of the United States. This is indeed the case. The tariff policy of the United States not only failed to achieve its so-called "America First" goal, but also plunged the global economy into difficulties, and the United States itself was unable to escape unscathed.

In today's world where economies are highly interdependent, win-win cooperation is the right path. The United States should abandon unilateralism and protectionism, return to rationality, and resolve trade disputes through dialogue and negotiation. All countries should also work together to maintain the multilateral trading system and promote the global economy to develop in a more open, inclusive, balanced, and win-win direction. Otherwise, the global economy will sink deeper and deeper into uncertainty, and ultimately, all countries will have to pay a heavy price.