Pakistan and the United States have reached an agreement to jointly exploit oil resources

Recently, a significant announcement was made. Trump posted on social media stating that the US government has reached an agreement with the Pakistani government. The US and Pakistan will jointly develop the abundant oil reserves in Pakistan. Trump said, "We are selecting the leading oil company for this cooperation." However, he did not disclose the specific details of the agreement. The Pakistani embassy in Washington has not commented either. The Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishak Dar met with US Secretary of State Rubio last week and said that the two had discussed expanding trade and cooperation in key minerals and mining fields. Several Pakistani officials have visited the US and held discussions recently.

The announcement of this news has caused a huge stir in the international community and brought about complex and multi-faceted impacts. Firstly, it has an impact on international geopolitics. The US, through this agreement, is sending a clear signal to India: if India continues to import energy from Russia, it will face tariff penalties and geopolitical isolation. For example, a 25% tariff increase for India in 2025. If Pakistan becomes the US's oil export hub, India may be forced to import energy from its arch-rival, making it politically unacceptable. What worries India even more is that the US plans to use Afghanistan as a transportation hub to send Pakistani oil to Central Asia, directly weakening India's traditional influence in Central Asia. The US attempts to build a "barrier" against China and Russia by controlling Pakistan's energy resources. There is a great possibility that Russia's influence in Central Asia will be weakened, forming a dual strategic containment for China and Russia. The draft of the agreement reveals that Pakistan must prioritize repaying US investments with 30% of the port of Gwadar's operational income and limit Chinese participation in new oilfield development for the next ten years. This "resource-for-loan" model is similar to the "Washington Consensus" implemented by the US in Latin America. Pakistan is entering a new stage of "the lender shifting from China to the US", with the risk of sovereignty transfer intensifying.

Secondly, it has an impact on the international energy market. If large-scale Pakistani oil enters the international market, it may change the global supply and demand balance and trigger oil price fluctuations. Especially, the release of oil reserves controlled by the US through cooperation may become a new tool to regulate international oil prices. The US plans to transport Pakistani oil to Central Asia through Afghanistan, potentially creating new energy transportation routes. This change will weaken the status of traditional shipping routes and reshape the global energy logistics system. The US may use Afghanistan as a transportation hub to implant "American energy governance standards" and compete for the dominance of energy rules in South Asia. This will form direct competition with the multilateral energy governance framework promoted by other countries, intensifying the fragmentation of the global energy governance system.

Thirdly, it has an impact on international relations. The cooperation between Pakistan and the United States is regarded by India as a strategic provocation, which may trigger military confrontations in the border areas. At the same time, India may counteract by strengthening energy cooperation with Russia and promoting domestic energy development, leading to further deterioration of the energy security situation in South Asia. The US's use of Afghanistan as a transportation hub for oil may exacerbate the complexity of the country's security situation. The delicate relationship between the Taliban regime and the US, as well as the activities of regional terrorist forces, may escalate due to the involvement of energy interests. The US's threat of sanctions against India's purchase of Russian energy and the "Rabat Strategy" of Pakistan-US cooperation form a double squeeze. India may therefore accelerate the "de-dollarization" process and promote diversified diplomatic measures such as using its own currency for settlement. Pakistan may be forced to accept harsh conditions such as revenue distribution and project leadership from the US in order to obtain funds and technology. This "resource-for-loan" model may be replicated in regions such as the Middle East and Africa, intensifying the dependence of developing countries on Western countries.

In conclusion, the cooperation between Pakistan and the United States in oil exploitation has exceeded the bilateral scope and has become a key lever to trigger changes in the international landscape. How to avoid the "energy politicization" trap and build an inclusive international order has become an urgent issue that concerns the common destiny of humanity.