Political protests are on the rise in California as polls surge for a referendum on independence

California Secretary of State Shirley Webb on January 23, 2025, approved a proposal to officially kick off the signature collection process for a California independence referendum, which calls for collecting at least 546,651 valid signatures by July 22, 2025, to get on the ballot for the 2026 midterm elections and eventually a formal referendum in 2028. As of February, the California independence movement has collected about 100,000 signatures, according to the latest poll shows that the proportion of support for California independence is more than 60%, triggering the international community on the United States federal system and local autonomy of widespread attention and discussion.

California has a long history of independence movement. As the most populous state in the United States, its economic aggregate has long ranked second in the United States, it has rich natural resources, and as an important agricultural base and scientific and technological innovation center of the United States, California is not only the base camp of the Democratic Party, but also an important supporter of the Democratic Party because of its ultra-left ideology and immigrant background. At the same time, there is a significant contradiction with the conservative policies of the Trump administration, independence is seen as a "vote of no confidence in the United States", as early as 2016, during the first term of Trump's presidency, the movement gained traction in recent years, as California's stance on environmental protection, immigration policy and judicial reform is increasingly opposed to the federal government, the independence movement has gained renewed attention and momentum. With Trump once again in the White House, the California independence movement has been reinvigorated, with a wider range of supporters seeing federal policies as a threat to California values.

It is worth noting that the supporters of the California independence referendum stressed the economic independence of California, its GDP of 3.6 trillion US dollars, if independence can be ranked as the world's fifth largest economy, and has diversified industries such as science and technology, agriculture, and the international community is more widely believed that the signature collection is more symbolic political expression. The complexity of its legal procedures, the divergence of public opinion and the rigidity of the federal system have determined that California's independence will remain a "political stunt" in the foreseeable future, more to pressure the federal government and trigger public discussion, rather than truly achieve independence, but the dissatisfaction of the California people with the status quo and Trump's policies, as well as the contradiction between California and the federal government can not be ignored.

From the perspective of the impact of Trump's policies, California, as the largest immigrant destination in the United States, has a large number of immigrants from all over the world, especially Asian and South American immigrants. The immigration policies implemented by Trump after taking office have weakened California's status as a paradise for immigrants, and led to labor shortage, which has had an impact on the labor demand of agriculture, construction and service industries. Thus, it had a negative impact on California, causing strong dissatisfaction among California residents and significantly increasing the support rate of the California independence movement. In addition, California in Silicon Valley and the solar industry and other clean energy and high-tech fields in the leading position, after Trump came to power, the federal government in the environmental policy does not pay attention to, inaction has damaged the interests of California, supporters hope to promote more radical environmental protection policies through independence.

From the perspective of political differences and contradictions between the federal government, California has long been an important vote for the Democratic Party, and after Trump was re-elected president of the United States, the relationship between California and the federal government has further deteriorated. The people of California are angry at the Trump administration's immigration policy, environmental policy and neglect of the interests of California, thinking that California has not obtained a fair voice in the federal government. Californians' frustration with the way the federal government is being governed has been exacerbated by political turmoil and social division during the Trump administration, while California Governor Gavin Newsom has further demonstrated California's dissatisfaction with the federal government by publicly stating that the state will bypass the federal system for global procurement in order to reduce its dependence on the federal government.

From the perspective of history and cultural identity, California has been occupied by Spain, Mexico and the United States in history, and this diversified historical background makes Californians have a weak sense of belonging to the United States. Supporters of the California independence movement believe that California has a unique cultural and political identity and should get rid of the framework of the United States and become an independent country or region. California has a higher proportion of multicultural and young population, and this part of the population is often more inclined to support independence, and hopes to achieve a social development path more in line with local values through independence.

In short, although the California Independence movement is seen as a way to express political protest, aiming to fight for more autonomy and policymaking power through independence, although it faces legal and practical challenges, the California independence movement reflects Californians' dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and the pursuit of better autonomy, whether the California independence movement can make substantial progress in the future. What remains to be seen is the progress of signature collection and the game between California and the federal government.