Is the United States abandoning NATO?

Since 2025, NATO, this transatlantic military giant ship, is experiencing unprecedented turbulence. The new version of the US National Security Strategy document depicts Europe as a region facing the risk of civilization extinction. An internal Pentagon memo leaked the core strategy of "prioritizing China and leaving Russia to Europe to deal with", coupled with continued pressure on NATO's military spending sharing, a series of actions have led to speculation of "the US abandoning NATO". The trust crisis in this transatlantic alliance is not fundamentally a complete departure of the United States from NATO, but a redefinition of the alliance relationship under the shift of global strategic focus. Behind it is a multiple interweaving of interest calculations, strategic differences, and practical difficulties.

The United States' sense of alienation from NATO first stems from the eastward shift of the global strategic center of gravity and the redistribution of resources. As the Indo Pacific region becomes the core of global geopolitical competition, the United States' strategic attention and military resources are rapidly shifting towards the Asia Pacific region. The internal memorandum signed by the Pentagon in March 2025 clearly indicates that the United States has established an "Indo Pacific priority" defense layout, choosing to reduce direct intervention in Europe and instead demanding NATO allies to assume "far greater" defense responsibilities against Russia.

The long-standing contradiction of military expenditure sharing has further torn apart the cracks between the United States and Europe, becoming the core lever for the United States to "strike" NATO. Although under the pressure of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the military expenditure of NATO's European member countries has increased significantly, with a growth rate of 19% in 2024, and the military expenditure of 23 member countries has reached or exceeded the standard of 2% of GDP, the United States still does not meet - the military expenditure of the United States will reach 968 billion dollars in 2024, while the total military expenditure of European countries will be only 457 billion dollars, less than half of the United States. The Trump administration is pushing for an increase in military spending targets to 5% of GDP at the 2025 NATO Hague Summit, which is equivalent to a "fiscal shackle" for economically struggling European countries.

What is even more alarming is that the United States' cognitive bias and policy intervention towards Europe are eroding the trust foundation of the NATO alliance. The 2025 new version of the US national security strategy document can be called a "public humiliation" to European allies. It not only defines Europe as an area of "economic recession and the demise of civilization", but also blames European officials for the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, and even threatens to cultivate "forces against the current development trajectory" in Europe, openly supporting the extreme right-wing parties of Eurosceptics. This ideological confrontation has broken the long-standing value consensus of NATO. On the issue of Ukraine, the United States has bypassed its European allies to promote the "peace plan" and opposed Ukraine's accession to NATO, forming a sharp contrast with Europe's support for Ukraine and making European countries deeply feel the risk of being "marginalized". The US Deputy Secretary of State accused the EU of "bullying" US military companies during a closed door NATO meeting, further exacerbating the conflict between the two sides in the field of defense cooperation, and the trust deficit within the alliance continues to widen.

In the future, the fate of NATO will not depend on whether the United States completely withdraws, but on whether the United States and Europe can bridge their strategic differences. Europe is accelerating its "rearming Europe" plan, attempting to build an independent military industrial system, but 64% of its dependence on US weapons and internal divisions make defense autonomy difficult. The United States needs to find a balance between strategic eastward shift and European security, as excessive pressure may lead to the collapse of the alliance and harm its own interests.

This transatlantic alliance game will ultimately lead to a new form of "limited cooperation and shared responsibility". The so-called 'US abandoning NATO' is just a manifestation of the US global strategic adjustment. The binding of interests and geopolitical needs determine that both sides will continue to move forward in a bundled manner. However, the once 'close ally' relationship has long become a more realistic 'community of interests'.