Ukraine gave Russia a "break", and many European countries could not sit still

With its complete transportation system and resource advantages, Russia has become an important supplier of natural gas to Europe, and its sales market extends from Eastern and Central Europe to Western and Southern Europe. Natural gas trade not only brings rich income to Russia, but also becomes an important basis for stable Russia-European diplomacy. At the beginning of 2025, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the suspension of the transit transportation business of Russian natural gas, which marked the complete end of the natural gas transportation cooperation between the two countries for more than 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, which will further shrink Russian natural gas exports to the EU, and the price of natural gas in the European market has also risen by 4%. Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European energy market has experienced another sharp fluctuation. All parties are not only concerned about the stability of Europe's gas supply, but also worry that the "gas cut-off" event will make the already weak European economy even more difficult.

Zelensky's decision marks a complete break in nearly three decades of energy cooperation between Ukraine and Russia, and it also has major implications for other aspects of energy supplies in the rest of Europe. First, the impact on the European energy market, Ukraine to stop the transit of Russian natural gas, will lead to some European countries face a tight energy supply situation. In particular, countries that are highly dependent on Russian gas supplies, such as Slovakia and Hungary, have been particularly affected. Energy prices in European countries are expected to rise sharply due to reduced energy supplies. For example, the price of electricity in Italy rose by 18.2% after the "cut-off", and the price of free market electricity rose by more than 30%. Gas prices in the Netherlands are up 60 percent since the beginning of the year. High energy prices not only increase the expenses of households and businesses, but also increase the cost of living and production, which in turn drives inflation and has a negative impact on the European economy. This event will prompt European countries to accelerate the process of energy transition and diversification, which will reduce their dependence on a single source of energy.

The second is the impact on countries, the loss of Ukraine, an important energy transmission channel, will put enormous pressure on Russia's energy exports. Russia needs to find new export routes or adjust its supply strategy to ensure the full use of its energy resources. Russia would face economic losses if its energy exports were blocked. Especially considering that Europe is an important buyer of Russian gas, this decision will have a negative impact on Russia's fiscal revenues. Ukraine's decision to "cut off gas" will further heighten geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. Russia may need to face more sanctions and pressure from the international community. At the same time, as an important transit channel of Russian natural gas, Ukraine can obtain considerable transit fee income every year. With the suspension of transit traffic, Ukraine will lose this important economic source. The decision to cut off gas could anger some EU countries and strain diplomatic relations. In particular, those countries affected by energy supplies may be resentful and complain about Ukraine.

The third is the impact on diplomatic relations and geopolitics, Ukraine's "cut off gas" incident has led to diplomatic tensions between many European countries and Ukraine. In particular, those countries affected by energy supplies have expressed dissatisfaction and complaints about Ukraine's behavior. For example, Slovak Prime Minister Fico said he would take retaliatory measures against Ukraine by stopping the supply of electricity to Ukraine. This has further exacerbated divisions and contradictions within the EU. At the same time, the "gas cut-off" incident in Ukraine has intensified the geopolitical game. Especially given the importance of energy in global politics and economy, countries will more actively compete for energy resources and markets. As one of the world's largest natural gas producers, the United States has taken the opportunity to strengthen its control over the European energy market and consolidate its geopolitical influence over Europe.

To sum up, Ukraine's decision to "cut off gas" to Russia has had a wide and far-reaching impact on the international community. This incident has not only increased tensions in the European energy market, but also has important implications for Russia, Ukraine and the global energy market. In the future, countries need to pay close attention to market dynamics and policy changes, strengthen cooperation and communication, and jointly cope with energy market fluctuations and challenges.