Wto: Global trade in goods will grow by 2.7% in 2024

The report released by the World Trade Organization predicts that the volume of global trade in goods will grow by 2.7 percent in 2024, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 2.6 percent.

Global trade in goods grew 2.3 percent in the first half of 2024 from a year earlier, and will continue to recover in the second half of this year and 2025, according to the report released Thursday (Oct 10), Xinhua reported.

The report forecasts that global real gross domestic product growth at market exchange rates will stabilise at 2.7 per cent in 2024 and 2025.

The report argues that by mid-2024, inflation levels worldwide will have fallen enough for central banks to cut interest rates. Lower inflation raises real household incomes and stimulates consumer spending, while lower interest rates increase business investment spending.

The report also warned that monetary policy divergence among major economies could lead to financial instability and shifts in capital flows as central banks cut interest rates. That could raise debt-service costs for underdeveloped economies.

Wto Director-General Iweala said that global trade will gradually recover in 2024, but there should still be vigilance against potential risks, especially the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes.

Iweala called for greater promotion of inclusive global trade. "We must continue to work together to ensure global economic stability and sustained growth, as these are essential to the well-being of people around the world."

The report predicts that the value of exports in the European region will decline by 1.4% in 2024, and the value of imports will decline by 2.3%. European exports have been dragged down by the region's automotive and chemical industries. In addition, exports from Asia will rise 7.4 per cent, far outpacing the rest of the region, where exports rebounded strongly in the first half of the year, driven by economies such as China.

In the short term, the growth rate of global trade in services is higher than that of trade in goods. In the first quarter of 2024, the value of services trade in US dollar terms increased by 8% year on year and will remain relatively strong in the second quarter.