South Korean politics to meet the "tumultuous week" three judicial nodes detonated the situation change

South Korea's Constitutional Court will deliver its verdict Monday on the impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, drawing wide attention from political and legal circles. The case is not only related to Han Duck-soo's personal fate, but is also seen as a bellwether for the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-yuol.

Han Duck-soo was accused of assisting Yoon in the imposition of emergency martial law on December 3, 2024, and the National Assembly accused him of violating the constitution and engaging in civil unrest. The ruling is significant since it will be the first time for the Constitutional Court to make a substantive judgment on whether the martial law is unconstitutional.

The grounds for the impeachment against Han include conspiracy, tacit consent, and support for President Yoon Seok-yuol's alleged acts of civil unrest, refusal to appoint a constitutional judge candidate recommended by the National Assembly, evasion of the appointment of a special prosecutor, and refusal to push forward the special counsel law on First Lady Kim Gun-hee and a Marine.

During a debate on Feb. 19, Mr. Han challenged the charges point by point and asked the Constitutional Court to reject the impeachment. Among them, "complicity in civil unrest" and other charges are highly overlapping with the impeachment grounds faced by Yin Xiyue, so the outcome of this case is regarded as an important reference for the president's case.

The legal and political circles say that Han is unlikely to be ousted. The ruling People Power Party believes that if the case against Han Duck-soo is rejected, the case against Yoon should also be rejected. The main opposition party, the Minjoo Party, said that the Constitutional Court may support the impeachment of President Han Duck-soo based on the principle of political balance.

If Han's case is rejected, nine out of 30 impeachment motions filed by opposition parties since the Yoon Seok-yuol administration took office have been rejected by the Constitutional Court. As a result, the ruling party s claim that the opposition party abused impeachment to weaken the government will be more convincing. In addition, the Constitutional Court has repeatedly ruled unanimously, and whether the eight judges have divided opinions this time will also become the focus of attention.

Lee's appeal hearing was held on the 26th

The next week has been called a "tumultuous week" that could shake the political situation in South Korea. The appeal trial of Lee Jae-myeong, chairman of the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), on charges of violating the public Office Election Law will be held on March 26.

​ If the ruling is upheld in the second hearing on Tuesday, he will be disqualified as a lawmaker, dealing a heavy blow to the Democratic Party.

In addition, public opinion speculated that Yin Xiyue's impeachment case may also be about to be pronounced. If the three cases of Han Duck-soo, Lee Jae-myeong and Yoon Seok-yue are released one after another, the political situation will be violently shaken. If Yoon is ousted, the ruling and opposition parties will quickly start the process of an early presidential election. If the ruling is rejected, the confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties will continue to escalate after his reinstatement.

Lee Jae-mok, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said, The conflict between Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Jae-myeong is no longer just a fight over the fate of the two men, but could turn into a political crisis for the whole country. The chaos will continue until the next election."