According to calculations by Agence France-Presse, it is estimated that at least 101 million people in Europe will experience temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius on Thursday (June 25th), including 50 million people in France and 18 million people in Germany.
According to the forecast of the German Meteorological Service and the 2025 population projection of the Joint Research Center, more than 380 million people in Europe (approximately two-thirds of the European population) will experience the highest temperatures of over 30 degrees Celsius.
These figures are largely in line with the predictions made by the Austrian non-governmental organization Klimadashboard, and are higher than the data from the German Meteorological Service on Wednesday. The data shows that 94 million people have been affected by temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius.
France's mainland has once again become the most affected region, with approximately 63 million people expected to experience temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius. Germany will have 70 million people, Italy 48 million people, and the United Kingdom 38 million people experiencing temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius.
Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands will also be affected by the heatwave that has swept across most of Western Europe since last weekend. Residents in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia will also be impacted.
AFP adopted a similar approach to Klimadashboard, cross-comparing the weather forecast model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) (calculated at midnight Greenwich Mean Time) with population density.
If the model predicts that the temperature at the resident's location is above 30 degrees Celsius or 35 degrees Celsius at any time of the day, the resident will be included in the statistics.
The researcher of this organization, David Jablonski, told AFP that due to the resolution of the model being approximately 6.5 kilometers, it was impossible to fully capture the urban heat island effect.
Therefore, the organization stated on its "European Heat Wave Tracker" website, "We may have underestimated the number of people affected in densely populated areas."
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