The government of French Prime Minister Berroux has collapsed, and Macron is facing a difficult choice

On September 8 local time, the government led by French Prime Minister Beru failed to pass the confidence vote held in the National Assembly. The next day, Beru submitted his resignation on behalf of the government to President Macron. This incident not only marked Bellou as the sixth prime minister to step down during Macron's presidency, but also plunged France once again into the predicament of "political paralysis".

On that day, Beru delivered a policy speech on the situation of France's public debt in the National Assembly and sought a vote of confidence on it. However, he ultimately received only 194 votes in favor and 364 votes against, failing to pass the vote. According to relevant laws, he must resign. The trigger for the downfall of the Beru government was the plan it proposed to cut fiscal spending. In July this year, Bellou released the draft budget for France in 2026, which plans to freeze the annual increase in pensions and social welfare, dissolve some public institutions or reduce their staffing, etc., aiming to prevent the intensification of public debt risks. However, these plans have sparked intense controversy.

From a deep-seated perspective, the current fragmented and polarized political situation in France is an important factor. In June and July last year, France held the National Assembly elections ahead of schedule. The new National Assembly formed a "tripartite confrontation" among the left, the center and the far-right. The total number of seats held by the left-wing party alliance "New Popular Front" and the far-right party National Union exceeded that of the ruling party alliance led by Macron, resulting in a lack of stable majority support for the government in the parliament. Against this backdrop, three prime ministers have resigned one after another over the past year or so.

The fall of the Bellou government also exposed two major governance problems in France. First, high welfare leads to high debt, making the system difficult to sustain. As a high-welfare country, France has been affected by the decline in productivity and an aging population in recent years. The high-welfare system has brought huge pressure to public finances. Data from the French Court of Auditors shows that the deficit of the social security system reached 15.3 billion euros in 2024 and is expected to expand to 22.1 billion euros in 2025. To maintain a high welfare system and meet other expenditure needs, the government is "addicted to borrowing". Second, there is a lack of political compromise, making it difficult to carry out substantive reforms. There is a lack of compromise among political parties, and the reform plans proposed by the ruling party are often obstructed by opposition parties and other interest groups. For instance, the pension reform that Macron has repeatedly advocated, although beneficial to France's long-term development, has repeatedly sparked large-scale protests and has been difficult to make substantive progress.

The impact of this incident on France is multi-faceted. Economically, France's debt scale has been continuously rising in recent years. As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the ratio of public debt to GDP has reached 114%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds has surpassed that of Greece and is on par with that of Italy, indicating a repricing of its credit risk by the market. The fall of the Bellou government may result in France having no budget for next year, with a fiscal deficit exceeding 6% and debt continuing to rise. On September 12th, the international credit rating agency Fitch will release a report, which is likely to downgrade France's sovereign credit rating, threatening France's international status.

Politically, Macron needs to appoint a new prime minister "within the next few days", but as the ruling party alliance does not have an advantage in the parliament, the new prime minister may also soon be impeached by opposition parties. At present, there are several possible directions: the Belu government will continue to handle daily affairs as a caretaker government and wait for a new prime minister. Or if the prime minister's candidate remains undetermined for a long time, Macron may dissolve the National Assembly again and hold an early election. However, this might repeat the result of last year's parliamentary election and further strengthen the opposition parties in the parliament.

As a major European power, France's internal political instability not only has a negative impact on its own economy, society and diplomacy, but also has a radiating effect on the entire Europe. If the economic problems in France remain unresolved and the situation of high inflation and high debt persists, it will have a negative impact on the economy of the Eurozone. The downfall of the government of French Prime Minister Berroux this time is a concentrated outbreak of contradictions in France's politics, economy, society and other aspects. Macron is facing a difficult choice, and the future direction of France is full of uncertainties.