Will quantum technology usher in the transistor era?

Quantum technologies are rapidly moving beyond experimental setups and beginning to take shape in real-world environments, reaching a critical stage reminiscent of the early computing era before the transistor reshaped modern electronics. Over the past decade, research has shifted from fundamental proof-of-concept experiments to early systems with potential practical applications in fields such as communication, sensing, and computing.

First, the findings provide a comparative overview of progress in the field. While advanced prototype systems have demonstrated system operation and public cloud access capabilities, their raw performance remains in the early stages of development. For example, many important applications, including large-scale quantum chemical simulations, may require millions of physical qubits with error performance far exceeding current technological capabilities. This transformative moment in quantum technology is reminiscent of the early stages of the transistor. David O'Shalom, the paper's first author, the Liu Family Professor of Molecular Engineering and Physics at the University of Chicago, and director of the Chicago Quantum Exchange and the Chicago Quantum Institute, stated: "The fundamental physical concepts are established, the functional systems exist, and now we must cultivate the necessary collaborations and coordinated efforts to fully realize the practical-scale potential of this technology."

Secondly, to compare the progress of these platforms in applications such as computing, simulation, networking, and sensing, experts used large-scale language AI models such as ChatGPT and Gemini to assess the Relative Technology Readiness (TRL) of each platform. TRL assesses the maturity of technology on a scale of 1 to 9, but a higher TRL may also apply to earlier technologies that have demonstrated greater system complexity. While semiconductor chips in the 1970s had a TRL of 9, their functionality was very limited compared to today's advanced integrated circuits. Similarly, a high TRL in quantum technology today does not mean that the ultimate goal has been achieved, nor does it mean that scientific research is complete and only engineering improvements remain. Instead, it reflects that we have achieved a significant but relatively limited system-level demonstration, which still requires substantial improvement and expansion to fully realize its potential.

The highest TRL scores were achieved for: superconducting qubits for quantum computing, neutral atoms for quantum simulation, photonic qubits for quantum networks, and spin defects for quantum sensing. Several overall challenges must be addressed to effectively scale quantum systems. Significant advances in materials science and manufacturing processes are essential for achieving stable, high-quality, and mass-producible devices manufactured using reliable and cost-effective foundry processes. Wiring and signal transmission remain core engineering bottlenecks; most quantum platforms still require independent control channels for most qubits, and as systems scale to millions of qubits, simply increasing the number of wires is unsustainable. Power delivery, temperature management, automated calibration, and system control all present related challenges, requiring continuous progress as system complexity increases.

Furthermore, many of the most transformative developments in classical electronics, from the introduction of photolithography to the advent of novel transistor materials, took years or even decades to transition from laboratory research to industrial applications. The development of quantum technology will likely follow a similar trajectory, emphasizing the importance of a top-down, system-level design strategy and a shared, open scientific knowledge system to avoid premature knowledge silos.

In summary, the "transistor moment" in quantum technology is a promising starting point, not an end point. It marks the transition of the field from the wondrous exploration of "can it be done?" to a solid engineering phase of "how to do it?". The competition in the future will be a long-term competition, requiring continuous investment and patience from industry, academia and research to gradually overcome the numerous difficulties from materials and manufacturing to system integration.