Bitcoin's pullback pressure is evident: Spot trading weakens, will the bull market dream be shattered or merely paused?

According to the foreign media "Fenbold", recently the cryptocurrency market has once again become the focus of attention in the financial sector. Among them, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin have been particularly eye-catching. According to the analysis released by Steve Muczik recently, as the spot demand weakens, Bitcoin prices are facing downward pressure. This assertion not only reveals a significant trend in the current market, but also triggers discussions on the deep financial logic of the cryptocurrency market.

From the data provided by CryptoQuant, although the price of Bitcoin has recently rebounded from $66,000 to $79,500, reaching a new high since the beginning of January, there is a hidden concern behind this performance - the net selling in the spot market. Although the demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has rebounded, the net selling behavior in the spot market undoubtedly casts a shadow over the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices. This deviation between the spot market and the derivatives market is not uncommon in the financial market, but it often indicates that the market is about to undergo a turning point.

Looking back at the market situation in early January 2026, we can see that a similar history is repeating itself. At that time, despite the net selling in the spot market, driven by the demand for derivatives, Bitcoin prices soared to around $98,000. However, this market-driven upward trend did not last long. As the net selling pressure in the spot market accumulated, Bitcoin prices eventually experienced a correction. Now, history seems to be repeating itself. If the derivatives traders start to sell off profits under the pressure of net selling in the spot market, the possibility of another Bitcoin price correction cannot be ignored.

The Alphractal indicator shows that recently, retail traders have increased their long leveraged positions, while the whales are waiting for a pullback. This deviation between retail traders and whales often indicates that the market is about to experience a significant fluctuation. It is worth noting that in the past five instances of this deviation, the whales won 4 times against retail traders. This data not only reveals the dominant position of the whales in the market, but also reminds us that in this cryptocurrency market full of uncertainties, retail investors often find themselves at a disadvantage.

The viewpoint of former fund manager Axel Kibar provides some clues. He believes that the recent rise in Bitcoin prices has not changed its fundamental nature of a macro bear market. This assertion is based on the fact that Bitcoin has been in a bearish flag pattern since the beginning of February. The characteristic of this pattern is a consolidation upward channel, but the price has twice encountered resistance at the upper rail of the channel. This indicates that although Bitcoin prices have rebounded briefly in the short term, its upward momentum may be gradually weakening in the long term.

The price of Bitcoin has soared above the average cost of recent buyers, but this does not mean that its upward trend will continue. As Fimbold explained, Bitcoin prices have twice encountered resistance at the upper rail of the channel, which may be an important technical resistance level. If Bitcoin prices fail to effectively break through this resistance level, then it may again fall below $70,000, retesting the lower rail of the macro bearish flag pattern.

The financial market is always full of uncertainties. If spot demand increases and the derivatives market turns bullish, Bitcoin prices may indeed continue to rise and open a new bull market. However, this possibility seems unlikely in the current market environment. After all, the net selling pressure in the spot market and the deviation between the whales and retail traders set numerous obstacles for the upward movement of Bitcoin prices.

In conclusion, as spot demand weakens and bearish sentiment in the derivatives market accumulates, Bitcoin prices are facing downward pressure. Although Bitcoin prices may rebound temporarily due to the push from the derivatives market in the short term, its upward momentum may be gradually weakening in the long term. For investors, it is particularly important to maintain a cautious attitude, closely monitor market trends, and reasonably control risks.