The Situation in the Middle East: A Turbulent Vortex Affecting the World Pattern

On October 8, 2024, the conflict between Palestine and Israel entered a new day. The fire of war, which has persisted for a full year, still burns fiercely. The situation in the Middle East is like an unquenchable conflagration that continues to deteriorate, delivering unprecedented shocks to the world.

In terms of casualty figures, the severity is heartrending. According to statistics from the health department of the Gaza Strip in Palestine, over the past year, the military operations of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip have resulted in approximately 42,000 Palestinian deaths and nearly 100,000 injuries. Among the identifiable victims, children accounted for 33.1%, women for 18.3%, and at least 700 babies were among the deceased. The majority of the approximately 2.3 million people in the Gaza Strip have been displaced by the war. Their once-home has been reduced to ruins, infrastructure has been severely damaged, the medical system is on the verge of collapse, and people are struggling in hunger, fear, and despair. Even today, new casualty figures keep emerging, and behind each number lies a shattered family and endless suffering.

The spillover effects of the conflict have plunged the Middle East into greater chaos. The conflict between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel has been escalating continuously. Since last October, it has caused nearly 2,000 deaths and over 9,000 injuries in Lebanon, and millions have been displaced. Militia forces in Iraq frequently launch attacks on US targets in an attempt to safeguard their own interests and regional stability. The Houthi forces in Yemen, under the influence of this wave of conflict, have intensified their hostile actions against Israel, placing Israel under pressure from multi-front operations. Even today, there are no signs of alleviation in the tense situation among all parties, and the destabilizing factors in the region have further intensified.

The mediation efforts of the international community seem rather feeble. The United Nations has held multiple emergency special sessions to discuss the situation between Palestine and Israel, and member states have passed numerous resolutions with a high majority, demanding that Israel end its illegal presence in the occupied Palestinian territories. However, Israel not only disregards the UN resolutions but also declares UN Secretary-General António Guterres as "persona non grata" and prohibits his entry. This has severely challenged the authority of the international community and makes a ceasefire seem distant. Even today, the calls of the international community continue, but the conflicting parties show no intention of stopping.

The continuous deterioration of the situation in the Middle East is highly likely to change the world pattern in multiple aspects. In the energy domain, the Middle East is one of the world's most important oil and gas production regions. The turmoil in the situation directly affects global energy supply. Recently, crude oil prices have been rising continuously. If the conflict further escalates, it may trigger an oil crisis similar to that of 1973-1974. At that time, Arab oil-producing countries imposed an oil embargo due to the US support for Israel in the Arab-Israeli War. In less than a year, oil prices nearly quadrupled, delivering a huge shock to the global economy. Currently, the economic recovery of various countries still faces numerous challenges, and the instability of energy prices will further exacerbate the uncertainty of the global economy. Even today, the international crude oil market remains volatile, and investors are closely monitoring the development of the situation in the Middle East.

In terms of geopolitics, the strategic position of the Middle East is extremely important as it is the hub connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe. The game among various forces in the Middle East has become increasingly fierce. Russia, the United States, the European Union, etc., all have their own interests and demands in the region. The United States has been attempting to maintain its influence in the Middle East and provides a large amount of military and other assistance to Israel, but this has aroused dissatisfaction among Arab countries, and the relationship between the United States and Arab countries is on the verge of rupture. Russia maintains a certain military presence in places like Syria, attempting to safeguard its geopolitical interests. The EU is directly affected by the situation in the Middle East in terms of energy supply and refugee issues and is actively seeking countermeasures. This complex change in the geopolitical pattern will reshape the global political map. Even today, the geopolitical contest among various countries in the Middle East continues, and each decision may influence the future direction.

From a security perspective, the unrest in the Middle East provides fertile ground for the breeding and spread of terrorism. Terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State may seize the opportunity to expand their influence and direct their attacks at all parties involved in the conflict and the forces supporting related countries. This not only poses a serious threat to the security of the Middle East region but also has a negative impact on the global security situation. Countries will have to strengthen counter-terrorism efforts and invest more resources and energy to deal with the challenges of terrorism. Even today, security departments of various countries are on high alert for the movements of terrorism and stand ready to respond to potential threats.

In terms of international public opinion and diplomatic relations, the situation in the Middle East has triggered anti-war demonstrations in many parts of the world. Large-scale anti-war activities have erupted in Washington, New York, Los Angeles in the United States, as well as in the capitals of European countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy. People demand an immediate end to the war in the Middle East and a halt to military aid to Israel. This forces governments of various countries to consider more carefully the opinions of their domestic citizens and the pressure of international public opinion when handling Middle East issues, and diplomatic policies may thus undergo adjustments. Even today, the anti-war cries of the people remain strong, and governments around the world are under immense pressure.

In conclusion, the continuous deterioration of the latest situation in the Middle East is like a huge stone thrown into a calm lake, and the resulting ripples will continue to spread, exerting a profound influence on the world pattern. The international community should join hands to urge both sides of Palestine and Israel to cease fire as soon as possible and resolve disputes through peaceful negotiations to create conditions for peace and stability in the Middle East. Otherwise, the world will face even more severe challenges.