The EU's historic shift: Sanctions against Israel and recognition of the State of Palestine

The bloody reality of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has forced Europe to start recalibrating its moral compass. On September 22nd, both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Jose Costa expressed their support for the "two-state solution" as the only way to resolve the Gaza conflict. This is not an isolated statement but a sign of a historic shift in the EU's policy towards Palestine and Israel. Portugal has taken the lead in recognizing the State of Palestine, and France and other countries will follow suit during the United Nations' "Two-State Solution" international conference. A week earlier, the European Union had already proposed a sanctions plan against Israel.

The EU has long pursued a policy of supporting Israel, and in the early stage of this round of conflict, it generally sided with Israel. As a result, von der Leyen was rebuked by the European Parliament. However, as Israel's military operations continued to escalate, the EU's attitude gradually shifted. On September 17th, the European Commission submitted a sanctions proposal, which included suspending some trade preferences under the EU-Israel Association Agreement, imposing sanctions on far-right ministers Ben-Gewell and Smotrih and some "violent settlers", and also adding 10 members of the Hamas Political Bureau to the sanctions list.

The EU's shift primarily stems from public opinion pressure. Israel's actions in Gaza have caused a stir in European public opinion. A poll in Spain shows that 82% of the people believe that "genocide" has occurred in Gaza. This kind of public opinion has prompted countries like Spain and Ireland to adjust their positions. Secondly, strategic considerations have also forced the EU to reevaluate. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has already led to an energy crisis in Europe. If we continue to strongly support Israel, it may deteriorate relations with Arab countries and endanger energy supply security. At the same time, changes in the demographic structure of European society also played a role. A large number of immigrant and refugee groups from the Arab world and North Africa are growing into a political force that cannot be ignored, and their support for Palestine is reverberating in the political arena.

However, the attitudes of member states are not consistent. Germany has always been cautious due to its historical baggage. Although it has suspended the export of some military products, it is still hesitant about the sanctions plan. According to EU rules, suspending trade preferences requires the support of 65% of the population and at least 15 countries, which means that Germany or Italy must be drawn in. Sanctions against Israeli ministers require unanimous consent. In contrast, Spain has taken the toughest stance. Not only has it cancelled a weapons contract worth nearly one billion euros, but it has also opposed Israel's participation in the Eurosong Contest, highlighting its long-standing pro-Palestinian political DNA.

However, the effect of sanctions is likely to be limited. The EU measures mainly rely on the "Global human rights sanctions Mechanism", affecting a trade volume of approximately 5.8 billion euros. Although the amount is not small, Israel's economy has a limited dependence on Europe and can still maintain ties through the United States, India and some emerging countries. As long as the United States firmly supports it, Israel's fundamental position will not be easily shaken.

In contrast, the symbolic significance of recognizing the State of Palestine is more profound. On September 22nd, French President Emmanuel Macron and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia announced the recognition of the State of Palestine during a UN meeting. The United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Portugal and other countries also joined the ranks. This will further strengthen Palestine's state status in international law.

Whether the EU can maintain this policy shift still depends on practical considerations. The European Union is Israel's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 30% of its global trade. If the sanctions are implemented, Israel's annual exports of approximately 5.8 billion euros to Europe will need to pay an additional 227 million euros in tariffs. Meanwhile, rifts within Europe have intensified. The appearance of "No Jews allowed" signs in German stores has sparked nationwide outrage, indicating that the contradiction between historical guilt and contemporary human rights values is being torn apart.

No matter what the outcome is, Europe has sent a clear signal: Israel's military operation in Gaza is crossing the moral bottom line of Europe. This shift may not immediately change the pattern of the conflict, but it indicates that Europe is bidding farewell to its past one-way stance on the Israeli-Palestinian issue and is attempting to find a new balance between history and reality.