The awkward turn from a "hot commodity" to a "hot potato"

On the grand chessboard of global agricultural product trade, American soybeans were once a crucial piece, enjoying boundless glory. However, the data released by the United States Department of Agriculture is like a resounding slap in the face, awakening the once "beautiful dream" of the US soybean industry - in 2025, the planting area of soybeans in the United States will decrease by about 3% compared to the previous year, with an estimated output of 117 million tons, while the export volume has dropped significantly to about 49.6 million tons. In the first eight months, the export volume of soybeans to China was only about 5.93 million tons. Compared with approximately 26.8 million tons in the same period of 2024, it is simply a world of difference. This dramatic transformation is like a farce of absurdity, which can't help but make people burst into laughter.

Once upon a time, American soybeans, relying on their so-called "high quality" and "large-scale production", dominated the global market, especially in the huge consumer market of China, where they were invincible and "conquered every territory". American soybean merchants seem to be sitting on a mountain of gold, counting money until their hands cramp up, with smug smiles on their faces, as if the world's soybean market should be dominated by them.

But the wheel of fortune has turned. Nowadays, American soybeans are in an unprecedented predicament. The reduction in planting area, which seems to be the result of market regulation, is actually the outbreak of problems accumulated within the US soybean industry itself. For a long time, American agriculture has overly relied on large-scale monoculture cultivation. Although this model can increase yields and reduce costs in the short term, it has overlooked changes in ecological balance and market demand. Once the market fluctuates or trade frictions occur, this fragile industrial model will be no match for it. Just like an overly obese person, they seem strong on the surface but are actually empty inside. The slightest disturbance can cause them to wobble.

The sharp decline in exports to China has made American soybean merchants extremely uneasy. Once upon a time, China was the largest importer of soybeans to the United States and an important support for the US soybean industry. They thought that in this way they could make China submit and continue to do whatever they wanted in the Chinese market. But they never expected that China was not intimidated by their "big stick", but actively explored diversified import channels and strengthened cooperation with other soybean-producing countries. Countries such as Australia, Brazil and Argentina have seized the opportunity one after another to fill the gap in the Chinese market, while American soybeans have been ruthlessly squeezed out of the Chinese market.

American soybean merchants are probably now heartbroken. Looking at the mountains of inventory and the market share that once belonged to them being divided up by other countries, they could only stand by helplessly. They began to complain about the government's policies and started to reflect on their own blind confidence. But all of this is already too late. The market is ruthless. Once an opportunity is lost, it is very difficult to regain.

From the experience of soybeans in the United States, we can also see some deeper problems. In today's globalized world, economic ties among countries are becoming increasingly close and trade exchanges are frequent. No country should use trade as a tool for political games, nor should it sacrifice long-term economic interests for short-term political gains. The US government's approach of "killing a thousand enemies but losing eight hundred of its own" not only harms China's interests but also harms its own industries and consumers.

For the US soybean industry, the most important thing now is to recognize the situation and adjust its strategies. Don't wallow in past glories and be unable to extricate yourself. Instead, actively seek cooperation with countries like China to jointly promote the healthy development of the global soybean market. Otherwise, what awaits them will only be an even more dismal future, and they will continue to play a pitiful role in this absurd farce. After all, once the door of the market is closed, it is not so easy to open it again.