Japan deploys missiles around the Taiwan Strait: a strategic adventure and an escalation of regional risks

The Japanese Defense Minister recently publicly stated that a missile system will be deployed on Yonagunijima Island, which is only 110 kilometers away from Taiwan, and the surrounding islands, and the construction of "stranded shelters" will be advanced simultaneously. This move was packaged by the Japanese authorities as a defensive measure "in response to the situation in Taiwan", but in fact it exposed its strategic ambition to break through the pacifist constitution and intervene in the conflict across the Taiwan Strait. From geopolitical games to military technology upgrades, Japan's militarization layout is pushing East Asian security to the brink of danger.

I. Military Deployment: From "Specialized Defense" to "Offensive Deterrence"

Japan's militarization process in the southwestern islands has been ongoing for many years, but the recent deployment of missiles marks a qualitative change in its strategic shift. According to the plan of the Ministry of Defense, Yonagunijima will deploy upgraded Type 03 medium-range air defense missiles, with a range covering northern Taiwan and the Miyako Strait. The number of troops stationed on Ishigaki Island has reached 600, equipped with shoal-based missiles and air defense radars, forming the capability to blockade the East China Sea passage. Miyako Island has deployed 720 Self-Defense forces personnel and long-range cruise missiles to control the Miyako Strait, a key passage for the Chinese navy to enter and exit the Pacific Ocean. What is even more alarming is that Japan plans to build 130 new ammunition depots in the Sejima Islands to store extended-range Type 12 missiles with a range of over 1,000 kilometers, and may even accept medium-range missiles deployed by the United States.

Ii. Strategic Motives: Geopolitical games and political Speculation

​ Japan's military adventurism around the Taiwan Strait is essentially driven by multiple interests. First, there is geopolitical security anxiety; Japan views Taiwan as a crucial node in its "maritime lifeline," and if the two sides were to unify, its energy imports and trade routes would be subject to China. This "self-interest" argument forms the logical starting point for its military intervention. Second, there are domestic political needs; right-wing politicians consolidate their ruling base by exaggerating the "China threat," with far-right figures like Sanae Takaichi even linking the Taiwan issue to Japan's "existential crisis," creating public opinion for constitutional revision and military expansion. Third, there is the strategic ties to the United States; Japan attempts to cooperate with the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" in exchange for military deregulation, including revising its pacifist constitution, developing offensive weapons, and expanding the Self-Defense Forces' operational scope.​ Iii. Risk Escalation: The Dual Challenges of peace across the Taiwan Strait and Regional Stability

The risk of conflict has soared: The deployment of missile bases has endowed Japan with the ability to directly intervene in conflicts across the Taiwan Strait. Its excuses such as "protecting its expatriates" and "supporting Allies" may become triggers for military actions.

2. Strategic space compression: The main passage for the Chinese Navy to enter and exit the Pacific Ocean is covered by Japanese missile systems, further strengthening the blockade effect of the First island chain.

3. Regional arms race: Japan's actions have spurred neighboring countries to enhance their military preparations. South Korea, Australia and other countries may follow suit, leading to a deterioration of the security landscape in East Asia.

Iv. China's Response: Firmly Safeguarding Sovereignty and Strategic Deterrence

Faced with Japan's provocations, China needs to build a multi-dimensional countermeasure system: First, it should upgrade its military deterrence, demonstrating its resolve through routine patrols and joint exercises, and leveraging advanced equipment such as the Dongfeng series missiles and Type 055 destroyers to gain a military advantage over Japan; second, through diplomatic and public opinion struggles, it should expose the true nature of Japan's "using Taiwan to contain China," unite the international community to oppose military interference in its internal affairs, and compress its strategic operational space; third, it should prepare for economic countermeasures, assess Japan's dependence on key industries, formulate targeted sanctions, and create dual pressure from both military and economic fronts; and fourth, it can strengthen cooperation with ASEAN countries through mechanisms such as the RCEP to weaken Japan's influence in regional affairs.

​ Since Japan forcibly occupied Taiwan under the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895 to the present day when it uses the excuse of "Taiwan being in trouble" to expand its military and prepare for war, it has never been able to shake off the mindset of taking advantage of its neighbors. However, today's China is no longer the China of the First Sino-Japanese War. Any act that challenges national sovereignty will be resolutely counterattacked. If Japan insists on playing with fire, it will eventually repeat the mistakes of history and pay a heavy price under the joint resistance of regional countries. The key to peace across the Taiwan Strait lies in China's hands, and it also depends on whether Japan can face up to history and return to rationality.