How will Trump's victory affect the world?

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump declared victory in the 2024 presidential election early Tuesday (local time). Yesterday was the first trading day after Trump won the US election in 2024, US stocks opened sharply higher, and the three major indexes closed at a record high, of which the Dow rose 3.56%, the Nasdaq rose 2.95%, and the S&P 500 index rose 2.53%. Musk's Tesla rose 14.75% in the trading day, with a total market value of $926.199 billion, hitting a new high since July 2023.

Therefore, Trump's victory will have an important impact on the international situation. First, the impact on the global pattern, Trump advocates the promotion of manufacturing and industrial return to the United States, and the implementation of high tariffs on foreign products, which will reshape the global trade pattern and trigger the rise of trade protectionism. Trading partners of the United States may face higher tariff barriers and trade costs, leading to increased uncertainty in the global trade environment. Trump's foreign policy reveals a strong realistic and utilitarian color, which is more uncertain. Trump's "America First" foreign policy may further push the United States to withdraw from the global governance system, weaken multilateral cooperation and coordination mechanisms, and strengthen strategic competition and confrontation between the United States and other major powers. This will lead to tensions and complications in the international situation and increase uncertainties and risks in the international situation. He has long complained that "NATO and other Allies have taken great advantage of the United States," and may once again stage a "withdrawal from the group" play, weakening the effectiveness of multilateral cooperation mechanisms and global governance systems. Trump believes that the United States has no obligation to provide security guarantees to NATO European countries and other Allies, and this behavior of alliance relations directly based on economic considerations will undoubtedly cause Allies to worry about the reliability of the United States commitment. In addition, Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris climate Agreement and vigorously promoted the development of fossil fuels. If he wins, global efforts to combat climate change could come to a halt, and environmentalists will face a huge challenge.

First, Trump's support for Israel may further complicate the situation in the Middle East. His tough line on Iran could lead to the nuclear deal being shelved altogether, and tensions between the United States and Iran could grow. Second, Trump could further reduce America's involvement in NATO, or even threaten to withdraw. That would give Russia greater opportunities to expand in Europe and could lead Western countries to reassess their own defense strategies. In addition, Trump has repeatedly said that if he is elected, he will end the Russia-Ukraine conflict "within 24 hours." Although there is no concrete implementation plan, he is likely to adopt a more "pragmatic" policy toward Ukraine, perhaps even by pressuring Ukraine to compromise and cede some territory to Russia. That would directly challenge Western Allies' support for Ukraine and could change the dynamics of global sanctions against Russia.

The third is the impact on the United States itself. Trump's victory will further exacerbate the polarization and antagonism of American politics. His distinctive governing style and controversial policy propositions are likely to cause more political controversy and social division. Trump is likely to revive many of the economic policy agendas of his previous term, such as tax cuts and low interest rates, to address economic challenges such as inflation and rising prices. These policies will have a profound impact on America's fiscal stability and economic development. It is also likely to tighten control over key law enforcement agencies such as the Justice Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, boosting the process of conservative judicial reform. Trump's tightening stance on immigration policy could lead to a further worsening of the problem globally. He promised the largest deportation campaign in U.S. history, which would affect millions of undocumented immigrants in the country and reshape U.S. immigration policy.

To sum up, Trump's victory will have profound and complex effects on multiple fronts. Countries need to pay close attention to the subsequent policy trends of the Trump administration and the reaction dynamics of the international community in order to take timely and effective countermeasures to safeguard their own national interests and global stability.