Is the reduction in the number of new jobs created a "tampering"? Trump's dismissal of the director of statistics has drawn criticism

On August 1, 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States released the July employment report, showing that only 73,000 non-farm jobs were added that month, far below the market expectation of 110,000. Even more shocking was that the data for May and June were significantly revised downward, with a total reduction of 258,000 jobs. The May figure was revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and the June figure from 147,000 to 14,000. This data revision triggered a strong reaction from US President Trump, who fired the Bureau's director, Erica McEntarfer, on the grounds of "data manipulation", but this move was widely criticized. This incident not only exposed the vulnerability of US economic data but also pushed the controversy over political interference in economic statistics to the forefront.

Data Revision: Statistical Routine or Political Conspiracy?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' data revision mechanism is not the first time to cause controversy. According to its statistical process, the monthly employment data undergoes three revisions: the initial report is based on about 73% of the survey responses, the first revision incorporates 85% of the responses, and the second revision covers 95% of the responses. This revision corresponds to the second revision and is a routine operation. Historical data shows that the revision in 2021 and 2010 exceeded 30%， but Trump characterized this revision as "the biggest error in 50 years"， accusing McEntarfer of "artificially inflating the data before the 2024 election to help Harris" and then "retaliatorily revising it downward" after his victory to tarnish her record.

However， economists and statistical experts generally believe that Trump's accusations lack basis. Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers pointed out that the employment data is compiled by a team of hundreds of people based on detailed manuals， and the director alone cannot manipulate it. Former Bureau of Labor Statistics director William Beach even stated that Trump's actions "set a dangerous precedent and undermined the Bureau's independence".

Political Motives: The Power Game Behind Economic Data

Trump's intense reaction is closely related to his economic policy goals. Currently, the US debt stands at 36 trillion US dollars. Trump hopes to lower the financing cost through interest rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve refuses to act immediately citing inflationary pressure. The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, still above the 2% target. Moreover, Trump's tariff policies have further pushed up the prices of imported goods, intensifying inflation risks. Against this backdrop, the weak employment data has become Trump's "weapon" to pressure the Federal Reserve - he attempts to pave the way for interest rate cuts by firing the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and questioning the credibility of the data.

Furthermore, Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve have escalated. On August 1st, Federal Reserve Governor Kugler announced his resignation. Trump took the opportunity to demand Powell's resignation and threatened to appoint someone who supports interest rate cuts. This "political personnel change" strategy is similar to firing the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, both aiming to undermine the decision-making power of independent institutions.

Market Reaction: Trust Crisis and Economic Risks

Trump's intervention has triggered a chain reaction. After the data release, spot gold jumped to 1,334 US dollars per ounce, and the US dollar index dropped by more than 100 points. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September rose from 40% to 73%. However, behind this "policy-driven" market volatility lies deep doubts among investors about the authenticity of the data.

Heidi Shierholz, director of the Economic Policy Institute, warned: "If policymakers and the public do not trust the data, economic decision-making will be in the dark." Due to data uncertainty, businesses have postponed hiring, resulting in a reduction of 49,000 jobs in the private sector in July. Consumers have cut back on spending due to rising inflation expectations, with retail sales increasing by only 0.1% month-on-month in June. More seriously, Trump's trade policies have led to the manufacturing PMI dropping to 48 and the new orders index hitting a five-year low, increasing the risk of a "hard landing" for the economy.

The firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director by Trump is essentially a fierce collision between political power and economic independence. Under the multiple pressures of a cooling job market, high inflation, and rising debt, the US economy is already on thin ice. Political interference in statistical data is like dancing on ice - it may divert conflicts in the short term, but in the long run, it will destroy market confidence and push the economy into a deeper crisis. As Summers put it, "Absurd accusations cannot hide the fact that the US economy is paying the price for Trump's policies."