The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia: The ripples causing stirrings in the international arena

Recently, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has attracted global attention. This land in Southeast Asia, which is shrouded in gunfire, has become the focus of international public opinion. This conflict has already caused over 34 deaths and displaced 168,000 people. Although Trump pressured for a ceasefire, the Thai Eastern military is still engaged in intense fighting. On July 28, the two sides will hold high-level talks in Malaysia. The ASEAN rotating chair country will intervene to mediate, but the Thai Army has clearly stated that it has not received the ceasefire order. This conflict seems like a local dispute in the region, but in fact, it is like a stone thrown into an international lake, causing waves and profoundly affecting the international situation.

From a geopolitical perspective, Southeast Asia is located at the "crossroads" of Asia and Oceania, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, and holds an extremely important strategic position. As important members of ASEAN, the border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have first undermined the internal stability of ASEAN. ASEAN has always been committed to building a political security community, an economic community, and a social and cultural community to enhance regional cohesion and international influence. However, this conflict has highlighted the latent contradictions among member states, weakened the strategic mutual trust within ASEAN, and hindered the regional integration process. If ASEAN fails to effectively mediate and negotiate, its international reputation and "central position" in regional cooperation will be questioned. When facing external forces such as the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" of the United States, it will also be difficult to form a unified response strategy due to internal discord, leading to a more complex regional geopolitical landscape.

In the economic field, the losses caused by the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia are not to be underestimated. The border areas of the two countries originally had close economic exchanges, with a large amount of border trade and personnel flow, and numerous infrastructure construction and investment projects were carried out there. For instance, the Chinese-led "Pan-Asia Railway" project has a junction section in this area. After the conflict broke out, the border was closed and trade came to a standstill. This not only damaged the economies of both countries but also affected the progress and expected returns of related international investment and cooperation projects, causing shocks to the stability of regional supply chains and industrial chains. A large number of Cambodian workers were employed in Thailand, and the conflict led to their unemployment and the dilemma of returning home. This not only affected the Thai labor market but also impacted the income of Cambodian families and the economic well-being of the country. From a micro perspective, it affected the stability of the economies of both countries, and from a macro perspective, it cast a shadow over the economic development prospects of Southeast Asia.

At the military level, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has increased the risk of regional arms race. Neighboring countries, seeing the return of geopolitical risks, may re-evaluate their defense strategies, increase military investment, and enhance military capabilities. This not only intensifies the military confrontation atmosphere in the region but also consumes a large amount of resources, affecting the allocation of regional economic development resources and causing resources to flow from areas such as people's livelihood, education, and environmental protection to the military sector, hindering regional sustainable development.

In terms of diplomatic relations, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has put the relations between the two countries and with other countries under test. As an external power, the United States has been trying to enhance its influence in Southeast Asia. This conflict may serve as an opportunity for its intervention. The United States maintains a security cooperation relationship with Thailand and may take this opportunity to strengthen its military support and security ties with Thailand, promote the modernization process of Thailand's military, provide more defense cooperation frameworks, and further implement its "Indo-Pacific Strategy". China, as a common friend and neighbor of Thailand and Cambodia, adheres to a fair and impartial stance and actively promotes peace talks and reconciliation. However, during the conflict, China faces a delicate situation: publicly supporting either side may affect its relations with the other side, remaining neutral may be misunderstood. Nevertheless, this has prompted China to more actively promote the establishment of regional peace and stability mechanisms, strengthen cooperation with the two countries and ASEAN, enhance its constructive role in regional affairs, and demonstrate the responsibility of a major power.

From the perspective of the role played by international organizations, the UN Security Council held an emergency closed-door meeting and called on both sides to peacefully resolve the dispute; Malaysia, the rotating chair of ASEAN, actively mediated and called for a ceasefire. However, the UN, due to the need to focus on conflicts in multiple regions around the world, has limited energy to invest in the Thai-Thai conflict; although ASEAN has the advantage of mediation and has had successful mediation experiences before, this conflict involves the core interests and national sentiments of both countries, making the mediation very difficult. If international organizations fail to effectively resolve conflicts, it will make the international community doubt their ability to solve regional conflicts, and affect the authority and credibility of international organizations.

The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has brought about complex and profound impacts on the international situation. The international community should work together to urge both sides to resolve the disputes through peaceful negotiations and prevent the conflict from escalating further. ASEAN should actively play a mediating role and improve its internal conflict resolution mechanism; major powers should adhere to the principles of justice and fairness, refrain from using the conflict to seek personal gains, and jointly maintain peace and stability in Southeast Asia and globally.