Brazil's Fury amid the Rift in US-Brazil Relations: How Tariff Hegemony Tears Apart Trans-Atlantic Partnership

On August 1, 2025, Avenida Paulista in downtown São Paulo, Brazil, was inundated with thousands of demonstrators. They held up banners reading "Reject Tariff Hegemony," burned US dollar bills and effigies of Trump, and the iron fences in front of the US Embassy in Brazil shook with a piercing sound amid the clashes. This wave of protests that swept across 12 major cities in Brazil has pushed US-Brazil relations to the brink of danger not seen since the 1964 military coup. Behind this conflict lies a fierce clash between unilateralism and the multilateral order, and more profoundly, the collective awakening of emerging economies against hegemonic politics.

I. Economic Strangulation War under the Tariff Big Stick

On July 30, the Trump administration signed an executive order on "reciprocal tariffs," placing Brazil in the 10% base tariff bracket while imposing an additional 40% punitive tariff, bringing the total tariff rate to a staggering 50%. This sanctions list covering 694 types of goods precisely targets Brazil's economic lifelines: orange juice, which accounts for 35% of total exports, coffee beans (28%), and beef (19%) are all included. Brazilian Vice President Alckmin pointed out that approximately 35.9% of Brazil's exports to the US will directly face a 50% tariff shock, equivalent to Brazil losing $12 billion in foreign exchange earnings annually.

At the Port of Rio de Janeiro, mountains of coffee beans rot under the scorching sun, and shipping companies have canceled 37 regular shipping routes due to soaring tariff costs. Although Brazil's aerospace industry has been exempted, its suppliers of titanium alloy components still face the risk of supply chain disruptions. This "precision strike" exposes the deep penetration of the US into Brazil's economic structure—from agricultural raw materials to basic industries, the US-Brazil trade network has long formed a symbiotic yet unequal and relationship.

II. Judicial Intervention: A Fatal Provocation on the Red Line of Sovereignty

The real motive behind Trump's weaponization of tariffs is to show support for former President Bolsonaro, who is facing trial on charges of attempting a coup by the Brazilian Supreme Court. The US government publicly demanded that Brazil's judicial system "stop political persecution" and even threatened to extradite Bolsonaro to Florida for "political asylum." This blatant interference in another country's internal affairs provoked an angry outcry from teacher Leonardo Barroso at the protest site in Brasília: "Only the Brazilian people have the right to decide the direction of the country, not the self-proclaimed 'world police' president of the empire!"

The Brazilian government's counterattack has been equally strong. President Lula publicly refuted Trump's claim of being "misled by false information" three times and disclosed data showing that the US has had a trade surplus of $410 billion with Brazil over the past 15 years, while Brazil has been in a deficit position for a long time. More symbolically, Brazil returned Trump's handwritten letter and summoned the US charge d'affaires in Brazil for a reprimand, a breakthrough in diplomatic etiquette that is extremely rare in Latin American diplomatic history.

III. Strategic Game in the Reconfiguration of the Global Industrial Chain

Faced with US pressure, Brazil has launched a three-pronged counterattack strategy: diplomatically, it has filed a lawsuit with the WTO and formed a "counter-sanctions alliance" with BRICS countries; economically, it has accelerated the of mineral trade agreements with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates while expanding the scope of RMB settlement for trade with China; in terms of public opinion, the Lula administration has packaged the protest activities as a "global movement to defend democracy," successfully attracting support from countries such as South Africa and Argentina.

This trade war has had significant spillover effects. The price of orange juice in the US surged by 42% within 72 hours of the sanctions announcement, while Brazil redirected 300,000 tons of orange juice originally destined for the US to China. The more far-reaching impact lies in the reconfiguration of the global industrial chain—Brazil's long-term iron ore supply agreement with India and its cooperation with Russia on satellite navigation systems are all weakening US control over key resources. As Brazil's Folha de S.Paulo newspaper put it: "When Washington tries to reshape the world order with tariff big sticks, it is instead accelerating the arrival of the multipolar era."

IV. Public Opinion Shift: Relationship Reconfiguration amid a Trust Deficit

According to a survey by Brazilian polling agency Datafolha, 23% of respondents consider China a "very trustworthy partner," while only 19% hold this view of the US. This shift in trust was vividly demonstrated at the protest site: while demonstrators trampled on the US flag, the promotional signs of Chinese infrastructure projects nearby remained intact. Brazilian economist Carlos Eduardo pointed out: "The Chinese model offers a mutually beneficial and win-win cooperative relationship, while the US only brings the hegemonic logic of 'surplus countries are guilty.'"

In this tariff war, the Brazilian people have drawn a clear roadmap with burning US dollar bills: from São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro, from ports to farmlands, voices opposing hegemony are converging into a torrent that is reshaping the international order. When Trump declared in the White House that he "likes the Brazilian people," he may not have realized that the fire he lit is burning the last cornerstone of trust in US-Brazil relations. The outcome of this conflict will determine whether the 21st century will witness the continuation of unipolar hegemony or the rebirth of a multipolar order.