The challenges and impacts behind the United States' urgent search for an alternative partner for SpaceX

Recently, the fierce quarrel between US President Trump and SpaceX founder Elon Musk has made the US government and NASA deeply uneasy about the current situation where the US space program is overly dependent on SpaceX, thus initiating an urgent search for a replacement. Behind this incident, it not only reflects the complex pattern of the US aerospace industry, but also will have a profound impact on the future global aerospace development.

SpaceX holds a pivotal position in the current aerospace field of the United States. In the field of commercial aerospace, it has achieved remarkable results. Last year, the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles conducted a total of 134 orbital launches. This number exceeded the total number of launches by other companies in the world, highlighting its powerful launch capabilities. Data from the Enterprise Institute, a US think tank, shows that 84% of the total number of satellites in orbit worldwide in 2024 will be launched by SpaceX, which means it has absolute dominance in the global satellite launch market and is almost in a monopolistic position. In terms of government cooperation projects, SpaceX undertakes government missions worth billions of dollars, provides manned and cargo launch services for NASA, and also carries out highly sensitive satellite deployment missions for the Pentagon. It is an indispensable part of the US space system. Especially the manned Dragon spacecraft, which is currently the only means of transportation for the United States capable of sending astronauts to the International Space Station, has filled the gap in the United States' manned spaceflight since the retirement of the US space shuttles in 2011 and played a crucial role in maintaining the United States' position on the International Space Station.

However, it is precisely because of this high degree of dependence that the US government has many concerns when dealing with SpaceX. The quarrel between Trump and Musk was just a trigger that made the US government and NASA realize the potential risks brought by over-reliance on a commercial company. Once SpaceX encounters problems, whether they are technical malfunctions, operational issues or conflicts with the government like this time, it may lead to the stagnation of the US space program and affect its strategic layout in the space field. From the perspective of national security, the Pentagon's reliance on SpaceX also brings uncertainty to military space missions, as the decisions of a commercial company may be influenced by multiple factors and may not fully meet the strategic needs of the government

To reduce this risk, the US government has begun to actively seek alternative partners for SpaceX. At least three commercial aerospace companies, including Rocket Lab, Stoke Space and Blue Origin, have been contacted so far to inquire about their rocket development progress and the time for providing launch services for government missions. Meanwhile, the cargo version of the "Dream Chaser" space shuttle being developed by Sierra Space has also come into NASA's view. NASA has expressed concern about its progress and the service life of the manned model. However, most of these companies are still at the primary stage in terms of space launch capabilities. Although the Rocket laboratory has certain experience in the field of small-scale launches, its manned technology is still not mature. Blue Origin has not completed a single manned orbital mission to date. Stock Space is still in the process of development. Compared with SpaceX, they have a considerable gap in terms of reliability and cost control. SpaceX has significantly reduced launch costs and improved launch efficiency through reusable rocket technology, which is currently beyond the reach of other companies. For instance, SpaceX is capable of conducting launch missions frequently and at relatively low prices, which is an advantage that other companies cannot replicate in the short term.

The fact that the United States is urgently seeking an alternative partner for SpaceX will have a significant impact on both the US aerospace industry and the global aerospace landscape. For the US aerospace industry, it may face certain chaos and uncertainty in the short term. Finding substitutes requires a significant investment of time and funds. Moreover, the insufficiency of new partners in terms of technology and experience may lead to delays and increased costs in aerospace projects. But in the long term, this will help promote competition in the US commercial aerospace market, drive more technological innovation and development, and avoid the drawbacks brought about by the dominance of one company. In the global aerospace landscape, this may prompt other countries to rethink their own aerospace industry development strategies, paying more attention to independent research and development and diversified development, and reducing reliance on individual countries or companies. At the same time, it also provides development opportunities for commercial aerospace companies in other countries. In the global aerospace market competition, new patterns and participants may emerge.