India claims to have surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy

The year-end economic assessment report of the Indian government predicts that the Indian economy has surpassed that of Japan and become the world's fourth-largest economy.

AFP reported that the Indian government released an economic brief on Monday (December 29), stating: "India is one of the world's fastest-growing major economies and has good conditions to maintain this growth momentum."

The report indicates that India's gross domestic product (GDP) has reached 4.18 trillion US dollars, surpassing Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy. It is expected to replace Germany as the world's third-largest economy within the next two to three years, with an estimated GDP of 7.3 trillion US dollars by 2030.

The report also states: "As one of the youngest countries in the world, India's growth depends on its ability to create high-quality jobs that can effectively absorb the growing labor force and achieve inclusive and sustainable growth."

However, the official confirmation still needs to wait until the final GDP data to be released in 2026. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that India will surpass Japan next year.

The IMF predicts that India's economy will reach 4.51 trillion US dollars in 2026, while Japan's will be 4.46 trillion US dollars. Despite Washington's imposition of huge tariffs on New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil in August, which raised economic concerns, New Delhi remains optimistic about its economic outlook. India pointed out that the sustained growth reflects India's "resilience in the face of ongoing global trade uncertainties". However, some other indicators show a less optimistic outlook.

In terms of population size, India surpassed China in 2023 to become the most populous country in the world. However, according to the latest data from the World Bank, India's per capita GDP last year was 2,694 US dollars, which was only one twelfth of Japan's 32,487 US dollars per capita and one twentieth of Germany's 56,103 US dollars per capita.