What will happen next in Iran?

A week after the largest nationwide protests in years, the streets of Iran have fallen silent again under the weight of a brutal crackdown. Under the shadow of this harsh repression of protesters and the possibility of a new military conflict with the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran hopes to celebrate the 47th anniversary of its revolution next month, with people taking to the streets and revolutionary songs playing. However, the atmosphere in Tehran's power centers is likely far from celebratory, as the regime faces its greatest existential threat to date. The government may be able to crush this latest wave of protests with its tried-and-tested methods of repression, but the underlying grievances of the protesters have not disappeared.

Firstly, large numbers of people across Iran took to the streets, chanting "Death to the dictator" and calling for the overthrow of the regime; more recently, some have even called for the return of Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last king, who is in exile. The scale of the subsequent crackdown indicates that the Iranian regime, severely weakened by the war with Israel and the US last summer and the loss of its regional proxies, has no intention of compromising. An unprecedented digital blockade has cut off Iran from the outside world, meaning the true scale of the atrocities is not yet fully known to the world. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, nearly 3,000 people have been killed since Iran began its crackdown on dissent.

Secondly, in the past few weeks, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran if the regime uses violence against protesters. However, on the 15th, Trump told reporters that "very important sources" had informed him that the killings in Iran had stopped, suggesting that the US would not take immediate military action. Gulf state officials also told CNN that Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt urged the US to avoid attacking Iran, warning that an attack could pose security and economic risks to the US and the entire region. These diplomatic efforts appear to have contributed to a de-escalation of the situation.

Furthermore, even if Tehran and Washington attempt to restart diplomatic negotiations, Iran will be in its weakest position yet. The balance of power between the two sides has shifted significantly compared to previous rounds of talks. Last summer, US airstrikes severely damaged Iran's main nuclear facilities, weakening a critical part of its nuclear program, while most of the proxies Iran uses to project power have also been effectively weakened by Israel. The US is eager to contain Iran's missile program and its support for proxy groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Shiite militias in the region. This is where the situation could become even more complicated.

Although the Iranian leadership has shown some flexibility in the past regarding a nuclear agreement with the US, it has consistently considered its missile program and support for so-called "resistance" groups as non-negotiable issues. Any compromise on these issues would be seen as a complete surrender to US demands.

Furthermore, recent protests indicate that the social contract between the Islamic Republic and its people has completely broken down. The country has not only failed to protect its citizens from foreign aggression, failed to deliver economic prosperity, and failed to guarantee political and social freedoms; it has also repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to use brutal violence to suppress its people.

However, the situation outside of Iran is even more complex. Overseas opposition groups remain fragmented. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah and living in exile, has re-emerged as a potential leader. He insists he would be a transitional leader, willing to guide Iran towards a more prosperous and democratic future. However, after more than forty years in exile, he has struggled to build a diverse, cross-political coalition and has failed to develop a plan for change that does not involve US intervention. Moreover, he is not even the preferred candidate of the Trump administration.

In short, while Iran has temporarily controlled the domestic situation, the two core crises of economic hardship and external military threats remain unresolved, and the future remains highly uncertain. The development of the situation will have a significant impact on peace in the Middle East and global oil supplies.