Recently, the US stock index futures fell across the board, the US stock index futures on Monday opened down, as of press, Nasdaq futures down more than 2.4%, S&P 500 index futures down more than 1.9%, Dow futures down 1.35%. In addition, cryptocurrencies are also lower across the board, Bitcoin finally fell below the $100,000 mark, nearly 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has more than 420,000 people have exploded. After a two-day monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve Board announced that it maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, which is the first time that the Federal Reserve has suspended interest rate cuts since it started the interest rate reduction cycle in September last year, which is widely expected.
After the global financial market experienced this violent shock, it also brought a very complex and multi-faceted impact on the financial market. The first is the impact on market sentiment and investors, the US stock index futures as an important vane of the financial market, its fall across the board often triggered investor panic and worry. This sentiment spread throughout the market, causing investors to shake confidence and reduce risk appetite. Investors may be more cautious in assessing investment risks and reduce their allocation to riskier assets, with adverse effects on the stability of the entire financial market. Sharp declines in U.S. stock index futures often trigger panic among investors and shake market confidence. That sentiment could quickly spread to other financial markets, creating a chain reaction. Under the influence of panic, investors' risk appetite is usually reduced, and they are more inclined to choose safe-haven assets, such as gold and Treasury bonds, and stay away from riskier stocks, futures and other markets.
The second is the impact on the global stock market and financial markets, the fall of the US stock index futures often triggers the linkage reaction of the global stock market. As the global economy and financial markets are increasingly interconnected, fluctuations in the US stock market can easily be transmitted to other countries and regions. This linkage effect may lead to a general decline in global stock markets, further aggravating market volatility, and may even trigger circuit breakers. Circuit breakers are a risk control measure in financial markets designed to reduce market panic by halting trading. However, frequent circuit breakers may also lead to a further loss of market confidence and exacerbate market volatility. At the same time, as an important bellwether of the global financial market, the US stock index futures often trigger a linkage reaction of the global stock market. Investors may sell equity assets around the world to avoid risk. A sharp drop in U.S. stock index futures could lead to increased volatility in the dollar exchange rate, which in turn affects the exchange rate of other currencies against the dollar. In addition, investors may seek to move their money into relatively safe currencies such as the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, etc. The sharp drop in U.S. stock futures could reflect expectations of slower global economic growth, which would weigh on commodity markets. Prices for commodities such as crude oil and copper are likely to fall because slower economic growth usually means less demand.
The third is the impact on financial institutions, the US stock index futures may lead to financial institutions more stringent risk assessment of the credit market, and then tighten credit conditions. This could have a negative impact on things like corporate finance and personal loans. Portfolios held by financial institutions may contain large amounts of financial products such as U.S. stock index futures. The decline in the value of these products will lead to a decline in the overall asset value of financial institutions, which in turn will affect their profitability and capital adequacy.
Fourth, the impact on the global economy, the decline in US stock index futures may reflect the expectation of slowing global economic growth and investors' concerns about the global economic outlook. Such expectations could lead investors to become more worried about the outlook for the global economy, which in turn could reduce investment and consumption. This negative effect could further drag on global economic growth, leading to an increased risk of a global recession. At the same time, such concerns may lead to a downward revision of global economic growth expectations, which in turn affects the economic policy formulation and macro-control of various countries.
To sum up, the impact of the US stock index futures across the board is multi-faceted, in the face of these impacts, investors and policy makers need to remain calm and rational, pay close attention to market dynamics and policy changes, in order to make wise decisions.
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